Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Prediction & Picks 5/27/2024

Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 27, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Alec Marsh - Royals
  • Joe Ryan - Twins

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

The Minnesota Twins will go head-to-head against the Kansas City Royals on May 27, 2024, at Target Field. As the home team, the Twins will be looking to defend their turf against the Royals. This matchup belongs to the American League Central division, adding an extra layer of intensity to the game.

The Twins have been having an above-average season so far, with a record of 28-24. On the other hand, the Royals have been performing exceptionally well, boasting a record of 34-20. The Twins will be relying on their projected starting pitcher, Joe Ryan, while the Royals will send Alec Marsh to the mound. Both pitchers are right-handed and possess different strengths and weaknesses.

According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Joe Ryan is ranked as the 19th best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. This indicates that Ryan is a great pitcher. In contrast, Alec Marsh is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB. However, it's important to note that Marsh's ERA of 2.72 this season is excellent, but his 4.12 xFIP indicates that he may have been lucky and could potentially perform worse going forward.

Joe Ryan has started 10 games this year, accumulating a win-loss record of 3-3 and an impressive ERA of 3.15. Alec Marsh, on the other hand, has started 8 games with a record of 4-1 and an ERA of 2.72. Despite Marsh's strong performances, his peripheral indicator suggests that he may regress in the future.

In terms of offensive rankings, the Twins rank 15th in MLB, which is considered average. They excel in team home runs, ranking 7th in the league, but struggle in team batting average, ranking 22nd. The Royals, on the other hand, have a strong offense, ranking 8th overall in MLB. They perform well in team batting average, ranking 19th, and excel in stolen bases, ranking 4th.

When it comes to the bullpens, the Twins possess the second-best bullpen in MLB, according to our Power Rankings. In contrast, the Royals have the 22nd best bullpen. This could potentially give the Twins an advantage in the later innings of the game.

Based on the current odds, the Twins are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -165, implying a win probability of 60%. The Royals, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +145, suggesting a win probability of 40%. The Twins have a higher implied team total of 4.46 runs compared to the Royals' 3.54 runs.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Out of all SPs, Alec Marsh's fastball spin rate of 2501 rpm is in the 94th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Typically, hitters like Salvador Perez who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Joe Ryan.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Kansas City Royals bullpen ranks as the 7th-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Joe Ryan is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.4% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #22 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Alex Kirilloff is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 70% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Byron Buxton pulls many of his flyballs (40.8% — 99th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball's 11th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 32 games (+6.45 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 30 of their last 45 games (+13.25 Units / 21% ROI)
• Willi Castro has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 36 games (+9.80 Units / 14% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 3.62 vs Minnesota Twins 5.04

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