Kansas City Royals

Kansas City Royals

May 12, 2024

Los Angeles Angels

Los Angeles Angels
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Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction & Picks 5/12/2024

Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 12, 2024
  • Venue: Angel Stadium
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Seth Lugo - Royals
    • Patrick Sandoval - Angels

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Royals -135, Angels 115
Runline: Royals -1.5 120, Angels 1.5 -145
Over/Under Total: 8 -110

Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Kansas City Royals - 55% Kansas City Royals - 46.24%
Los Angeles Angels - 45% Los Angeles Angels - 53.76%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

In a highly-anticipated American League matchup, the Los Angeles Angels will take on the Kansas City Royals at Angel Stadium on May 12, 2024. The Angels, who are having a rough season with a 15-25 record, will be the home team, while the Royals, with an impressive 24-17 record, will be the away team.

On the mound, the Angels are projected to start left-handed pitcher Patrick Sandoval, who has a record of 2-5 this season with an ERA of 4.85. Despite his numbers, our advanced-stat Power Rankings consider Sandoval the #37 best starting pitcher in MLB, suggesting that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. On the other side, the Royals are projected to start right-handed pitcher Seth Lugo, who has been performing exceptionally well this season with a 5-1 record and an impressive 1.92 ERA.

The Angels offense has shown some power this season, ranking #3 in MLB in team home runs. However, they have struggled in other areas, ranking #27 in team stolen bases. The Royals, on the other hand, have a well-rounded offense, ranking #14 in MLB overall and #4 in team stolen bases.

In terms of bullpens, the Angels rank #29 in MLB, while the Royals rank #18. This could be a disadvantage for the Angels, as a strong bullpen can play a crucial role in close games.

Based on the current odds, the Royals are favored to win with an implied win probability of 55%. However, it's important to note that betting markets expect a close game, as the Angels have a +115 moneyline with a 45% win probability.

Overall, this game presents an interesting matchup between a struggling Angels team and a strong Royals team. While the Royals have the edge on paper, the Angels' power-hitting offense and home-field advantage could make for an exciting and closely contested game.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Seth Lugo has relied on his curveball 9.3% less often this year (20%) than he did last season (29.3%).

  • Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Nelson Velazquez's 21.1% Barrel% (a reliable metric to study power) grades out in the 99th percentile since the start of last season.

  • Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Kansas City's 89.3-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season is among the best in MLB: #10 overall.

  • Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Over his last 3 games started, Patrick Sandoval has experienced a notable drop off in his fastball spin rate: from 2012 rpm over the whole season to 1950 rpm recently.

  • Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Luis Guillorme's footspeed has fallen off this year. His 25.44 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 24.95 ft/sec now.

  • Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Logan O'Hoppe pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.2% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 10th-deepest LF fences today.

  • This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

  • The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 52 games (+8.80 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 55 games (+7.25 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Zach Neto has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+8.75 Units / 27% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.5 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.61

Check out all our free picks on every MLB game daily in our MLB betting section.

Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-109
67% KC
-110
33% LAA

Total Pick Consensus

8.0/-105
38% UN
8.0/-115
62% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/+150
93% KC
+1.5/-180
7% LAA

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
KC
Team Stats
LAA
5.20
ERA
4.58
.260
Batting Avg Against
.247
1.41
WHIP
1.39
.304
BABIP
.301
9.1%
BB%
9.9%
20.4%
K%
23.6%
67.1%
LOB%
71.2%
.244
Batting Avg
.251
.394
SLG
.437
.695
OPS
.761
.301
OBP
.324
KC
Team Records
LAA
45-36
Home
32-49
41-40
Road
31-50
70-55
vRHP
49-79
16-21
vLHP
14-20
45-54
vs>.500
40-58
41-22
vs<.500
23-41
4-6
Last10
1-9
9-11
Last20
4-16
12-18
Last30
9-21
S. Lugo
P. Sandoval
N/A
Innings
112.1
N/A
GS
21
N/A
W-L
6-9
N/A
ERA
4.09
N/A
K/9
7.85
N/A
BB/9
4.17
N/A
HR/9
0.72
N/A
LOB%
68.7%
N/A
HR/FB%
9.5%
N/A
FIP
4.06
N/A
xFIP
4.40

S. Lugo

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
9/27 WSH
Voth 108
L5-15 9
1.1
5
6
6
1
2
24-38
9/22 TB
Snell -133
W5-2 7.5
6.1
4
2
1
7
1
66-95
9/17 PHI
Nola -110
W10-6 8
1.2
8
6
6
3
0
30-52
9/12 TOR
Ray 152
L2-3 9.5
5.1
7
3
3
5
1
60-91
9/5 PHI
Howard 143
W5-1 9
5
4
1
1
8
2
50-81

P. Sandoval

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/2 CHW
Cease N/A
L0-3 N/A
6
6
3
3
2
3
57-96
4/19 HOU
Valdez N/A
W7-2 N/A
4
4
1
0
5
2
50-85
4/12 MIA
Luzardo N/A
W4-3 N/A
4
3
1
0
6
3
40-71
8/13 HOU
Greinke N/A
L1-4 N/A
4.2
5
4
4
3
2
50-83
8/6 LAD
Price N/A
W4-3 N/A
5
7
2
2
4
2
56-96

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
KC LAA
KC LAA
Consensus
-135
+115
-109
-110
-142
+120
-108
-112
-126
+108
-106
-110
-137
+118
-110
-107
-135
+115
-110
-110
-145
+120
-110
-110
Open
Current
Book
KC LAA
KC LAA
Consensus
-1.5 (+118)
+1.5 (-145)
-1.5 (+150)
+1.5 (-185)
-1.5 (+120)
+1.5 (-142)
-1.5 (+150)
+1.5 (-180)
-1.5 (+122)
+1.5 (-146)
-1.5 (+150)
+1.5 (-178)
-1.5 (+118)
+1.5 (-148)
-1.5 (+150)
+1.5 (-186)
-1.5 (+115)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+150)
+1.5 (-178)
-1.5 (+115)
+1.5 (-140)
-1.5 (+150)
+1.5 (-185)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.5 (+100)
8.5 (-120)
8.0 (-117)
8.0 (-104)
8.5 (+100)
8.5 (-120)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-105)
8.0 (-114)
8.0 (-106)
8.5 (-109)
8.5 (-112)
8.0 (-118)
8.0 (-103)
8.5 (+100)
8.5 (-120)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
8.5 (+100)
8.5 (-120)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)