Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers Betting Pick & Preview – 4/28/2024

Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers Betting Pick & Prediction & Preview

• Date: April 28, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael Wacha - Royals
  • Tarik Skubal - Tigers
• Run Line: Royals 1.5 -165, Tigers -1.5 145
• Money Line: Royals 135, Tigers -155
• Total (Over/Under): 7.5

Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Kansas City Royals - 41%
• Detroit Tigers - 59%

Projected Win %:

• Kansas City Royals - 41.11%
• Detroit Tigers - 58.89%

Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers Game Preview & Prediction

In an American League Central matchup, the Detroit Tigers will host the Kansas City Royals at Comerica Park on April 28, 2024. The Tigers, with a season record of 15-12, are having a good season so far, while the Royals boast a great season with a record of 17-11.

The Tigers are projected to start left-handed pitcher Tarik Skubal, who has been performing exceptionally well this year. Skubal has started five games, maintaining an undefeated 3-0 record with an impressive 1.82 ERA. However, his peripheral indicator, xFIP, suggests that he may not continue this level of performance going forward. Skubal is projected to pitch around 5.7 innings, allowing an average of 2.0 earned runs and striking out 6.9 batters. His weakness lies in allowing hits and walks, with averages of 4.6 hits and 1.3 walks.

On the other side, the Royals are projected to start right-handed pitcher Michael Wacha. Wacha has started five games this season, posting a 1-2 record with a 3.81 ERA. He is projected to pitch around 5.3 innings, allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs and striking out 5.2 batters. However, Wacha struggles with hits and walks, as he is projected to allow an average of 5.0 hits and 1.7 walks per game.

From an offensive standpoint, the Tigers rank as the 27th best team in MLB, with a low team batting average and limited home run and stolen base production. In contrast, the Royals rank as the 15th best team in MLB, with an average team batting average and a strong stolen base game.

Considering the projections and team performances, the Tigers enter the game as the betting favorite with a moneyline of -155 and an implied win probability of 59%. The Royals, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +135 and an implied win probability of 41%.

With the Tigers' strong pitching and the Royals' solid offense, this game promises to be an intriguing matchup. The Tigers will rely on Skubal's impressive performance, while the Royals will aim to exploit his weakness in allowing hits and walks. As the teams battle it out, the outcome will have significant implications for their respective seasons.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Michael Wacha has averaged 17 outs per start this year, ranking in the 76th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Nelson Velazquez is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Hunter Renfroe pulls a lot of his flyballs (39% — 97th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball's 5th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

As a result of his reverse platoon split, Tarik Skubal will be at an advantage facing 7 hitters in the projected offense who bat from the other side in today's game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Mark Canha has been hot of late, bashing 2 homers in the last week.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games (+9.54 Units / 40% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 21 games (+9.10 Units / 43% ROI)

Royals vs Tigers Prediction: Royals 3.81 - Tigers 4.34

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