Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox Prediction For 7/31/2024

Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox Details

• Date: July 31, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brady Singer - Royals
  • Drew Thorpe - White Sox

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

The stage is set for an American League Central showdown on July 31, 2024, as the Chicago White Sox host the Kansas City Royals at Guaranteed Rate Field. This is the third game in the series between these two teams, and there's a stark contrast in their seasons. The White Sox, with a dismal 27-82 record, are having a terrible season, while the Royals are having an above-average season at 58-49.

The pitching matchup features right-handers Drew Thorpe for the White Sox and Brady Singer for the Royals. Thorpe has had a challenging season, and with Chicago ranking 29th in team batting average and 28th in home runs, he doesn't have much offensive support. On the flip side, Kansas City's offense has been more productive, ranking 11th in team batting average and 19th in home runs.

When looking at recent performances, the Royals have the edge. Bobby Witt Jr. has been on fire, recording 11 hits, 5 runs, and 6 RBIs in his last 6 games, with a scorching .440 batting average and 1.142 OPS. In contrast, Paul DeJong has been the best hitter for the White Sox over the last week, posting a .286 batting average and a .872 OPS over 7 games.

Kansas City's speed on the basepaths could also be a factor; they rank 8th in stolen bases compared to Chicago's 14th. This could put additional pressure on Thorpe and the White Sox defense.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, underscores the Royals' advantage in this matchup. With Brady Singer on the mound and a more robust lineup, Kansas City appears well-positioned to continue their successful season against a struggling White Sox team. Bettors should take note of the disparities and recent trends when making their picks for this game.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Brady Singer is an extreme groundball pitcher (48.3% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Guaranteed Rate Field — the #8 HR venue among all stadiums — in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Kyle Isbel's average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 88.8-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 79-mph in the past week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Kansas City's 89.4-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in Major League Baseball: #5 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Andrew Thorpe's high utilization percentage of his secondary pitches (67% this year) ought to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Extreme flyball hitters like Nicky Lopez generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Brady Singer.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Gavin Sheets pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.8% — 80th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 78 games (+3.95 Units / 5% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 30 games (+6.65 Units / 20% ROI)
• Salvador Perez has hit the Total Bases Under in 31 of his last 48 games (+10.20 Units / 16% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 5.24 vs Chicago White Sox 3.92

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