Houston Astros vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction – 4/16/2025

Houston Astros vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

On April 16, 2025, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Houston Astros at Busch Stadium in what promises to be an intriguing Interleague matchup. Both teams come into this game with identical records of 8-9, and neither is having a particularly strong start to the season. The Cardinals’ offense, however, ranks as the 2nd best in MLB and leads the league with a .282 batting average. They have a solid chance to exploit the struggles of Astros pitcher Ronel Blanco, who has a troubling 6.94 ERA this year.

Yesterday, the Cardinals fell to the Astros in a tightly contested game, marking the second game of the series. It will be interesting to see how they respond, especially with Steven Matz projected to take the mound. Although Matz is ranked 226th among MLB starting pitchers, his 2.31 ERA suggests he has been effective in limited appearances, albeit with some luck on his side. The projections anticipate he will struggle to go deep into the game, averaging just 4.2 innings.

The Astros, on the other hand, have an offense that ranks 23rd overall. They've been hampered by inconsistency, but their best hitter is currently in good form, boasting a .304 batting average and three home runs over the last week. Meanwhile, Blanco's performance has been marked by a 3.16 xFIP, hinting at potential for improvement despite past struggles.

With both teams looking to gain momentum, the Cardinals appear to hold the advantage, particularly with their high-octane offense against a shaky Astros rotation. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, suggesting a competitive matchup where the Cardinals’ depth may ultimately shine through.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Over his last 3 GS, Ronel Blanco has put up a whopping ERA of 6.94.

• A pitcher who has struggled in his most recent outings may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

In terms of his batting average, Jake Meyers has had some very poor luck since the start of last season. His .225 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .258.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

The Houston Astros bullpen ranks as the 5th-best in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Steven Matz to be limited in today's game, projecting a maximum of 65 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Alec Burleson has negatively regressed with his Barrel%; his 6.6% rate last year has lowered to 0% this season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Nolan Arenado pulls many of his flyballs (42% — 99th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 8th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.45 Units / 15% ROI)
• Jeremy Pena has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 away games (+11.50 Units / 144% ROI)

Houston Astros vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Houston Astros 4.79, St. Louis Cardinals 4.48

• Date: April 16, 2025
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ronel Blanco - Astros
  • Steven Matz - Cardinals

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