Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays Best Bet – 7/2/2024

Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays Details

• Date: July 2, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Spencer Arrighetti - Astros
  • Jose Berrios - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

On July 2, 2024, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the Houston Astros at Rogers Centre in the second game of their series. The Blue Jays, with a 38-46 record, are having a below-average season, while the Astros sit at 43-41, marking an average season for them. Both teams will be looking to gain some momentum as the season progresses.

Toronto will send right-hander Jose Berrios to the mound. Berrios has a 7-6 record with an impressive 3.38 ERA over 17 starts this year. However, his 4.34 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate, according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. Berrios projects to pitch six innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs and striking out five batters on average. These projections are fairly solid, but his tendency to allow hits and walks could be a concern against Houston's potent offense.

The Astros will counter with Spencer Arrighetti, another right-hander. Arrighetti has struggled this season, posting a 4-6 record and a 5.68 ERA over 14 starts. However, his 4.25 xFIP indicates he's been somewhat unlucky and might perform better moving forward. THE BAT X projects Arrighetti to pitch five innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs and striking out 4.2 batters on average. While not stellar, these projections suggest he might hold his own against Toronto's average offense.

Offensively, the Blue Jays rank 17th in MLB, with significant struggles in batting average (20th), home runs (27th), and stolen bases (26th). Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been a bright spot recently, hitting .500 with four home runs and 17 RBIs over the last week. On the other hand, the Astros boast the 5th best offense, leading the league in batting average and ranking 8th in home runs. Yordan Alvarez has been hot, batting .381 with a 1.185 OPS over the last week.

Both bullpens could play a pivotal role in this matchup. Toronto's bullpen ranks 24th, while Houston's ranks 15th, according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Given the evenly matched moneyline odds, this game could go either way, but Houston's offensive firepower and average bullpen might give them a slight edge.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Tallying 13.9 outs per start this year on average, Spencer Arrighetti places him the 8th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Jon Singleton has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.4-mph dropping to 81.7-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Houston's 89.2-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the best in the majors: #7 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Jose Berrios has added a slider to his pitch mix this year and has utilized it 30.9% of the time.

• Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.

Houston's #3-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Daulton Varsho, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 88th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games at home (+6.35 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 68 games (+15.65 Units / 21% ROI)
• George Springer has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.90 Units / 40% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 4.57 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.69

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