Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners Prediction – 4/2/2025

Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

As the Seattle Mariners prepare to face the Detroit Tigers on April 2, 2025, both teams are struggling to find their footing early in the season. The Mariners hold a record of 2-4, while the Tigers sit slightly better at 2-3. Both teams are looking to turn things around after the Mariners narrowly lost to the Tigers in their last matchup, a game that showcased their offensive woes.

Seattle's pitching will rely on Luis Castillo, who is projected to start after a rocky start to the season with an 0-1 record and a respectable 3.60 ERA. However, Castillo's 4.20 xFIP suggests he may have been fortunate in his early outings, and he faces a daunting challenge against a Detroit offense that ranks 11th in MLB, showing signs of life. Castillo's average projections of 6.0 innings pitched and 2.2 earned runs allowed could be tested against a lineup that has been performing better than expected.

On the other side, Tarik Skubal will take the mound for Detroit. Despite struggling with a 0-1 record and a troubling 7.20 ERA, Skubal's advanced metrics indicate he has been unlucky, as evidenced by his 4.82 xFIP. His ability to limit walks and strikeouts could play to his advantage against the Mariners, who rank 5th in MLB for strikeouts.

The Mariners' offense, ranked 39th overall, has struggled to find consistency, particularly in power, ranking 27th in home runs. In contrast, the Tigers' offense has shown more promise, especially with their top hitter boasting a stellar 1.188 OPS over the last week. This game has a low Game Total of 6.5 runs, reflecting the expectations for a tightly contested battle. With the Mariners' current moneyline sitting at +100, the odds suggest this matchup could be closer than their records indicate.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Given that flyball pitchers are least effective against groundball hitters, Tarik Skubal (45.6% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 4 GB hitters in Seattle's projected batting order.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Riley Greene's quickness has fallen off this year. His 27.7 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 25.5 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Detroit Tigers' bullpen grades out as the best out of all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Luis Castillo's high usage rate of his fastball (63.2% since the start of last season) is likely weakening his results, since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Hitters such as Mitch Garver with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Tarik Skubal who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Mitch Garver pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.7% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 8th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 74 games at home (+12.35 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 56 of their last 90 games (+18.90 Units / 15% ROI)

• Date: April 2, 2025
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tarik Skubal - Tigers
  • Luis Castillo - Mariners

Get daily MLB picks here.