Detroit Tigers vs San Diego Padres Prediction & Picks 9/5/2024

• Date: September 5, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Casey Mize - Tigers
  • Martin Perez - Padres

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

As the San Diego Padres prepare to face the Detroit Tigers on September 5, 2024, both teams are looking to make a statement in this interleague matchup. The Padres currently sit at 79-61, showcasing a strong season, while the Tigers hover around .500 with a 70-69 record. The Padres have an impressive offense, ranking 8th in MLB, and leading the league in batting average, which bodes well against a Tigers pitching staff that has struggled at times.

In their last game, the Padres played a competitive matchup against the Tigers that showcased their offensive prowess, while also highlighting the struggles of Detroit's pitching. San Diego is projected to start Martin Perez, who has had a mixed season with a 4-5 record and an average ERA of 4.71. However, his underlying metrics suggest he may have been somewhat lucky this year, and he has been projected to allow 2.6 earned runs in about 5.4 innings today. On the other hand, Casey Mize takes the mound for Detroit, coming in with a 2-6 record and an ERA of 4.36. Mize's 3.76 FIP indicates he may have been unlucky, and he projects to allow 2.8 earned runs in 5.3 innings.

The Padres' offense has been firing on all cylinders, particularly with Jake Cronenworth leading the charge over the last week with a .333 batting average and a 1.040 OPS. In contrast, the Tigers have struggled offensively, ranking 24th in MLB. With San Diego's bullpen ranked 2nd overall, they are well-positioned to secure a victory, especially given the projections that favor their strong lineup against Mize’s low strikeout rate. The current Game Total sits at 8.5 runs, indicating a potentially high-scoring affair favoring the Padres. With a moneyline of -155, San Diego is the betting favorite, reflecting their strong season and matchup advantage.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

When assessing his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Casey Mize in the 20th percentile among all starters in Major League Baseball.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

When it comes to his batting average, Spencer Torkelson has been lucky this year. His .220 figure has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .177.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Andy Ibanez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Out of all starting pitchers, Martin Perez's fastball spin rate of 2050 rpm ranks in the 11th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Xander Bogaerts is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Kyle Higashioka, the Padres's expected catcher today, projects as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 43 games (+13.10 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 38 of their last 58 games (+16.00 Units / 20% ROI)
• Manny Machado has hit the RBIs Over in 18 of his last 34 games (+7.60 Units / 22% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.24 vs San Diego Padres 4.63

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