Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees Betting Pick & Preview – 5/3/2024

Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 3, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Reese Olson - Tigers
  • Marcus Stroman - Yankees

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

On May 3, 2024, the New York Yankees will host the Detroit Tigers at Yankee Stadium in an American League matchup. Both teams are having great seasons and will be looking to continue their success.

The Yankees currently hold a record of 20-13, showcasing their strong performance this season. They are known for their powerful offense, ranking 8th in MLB. However, their team batting average ranks 29th, indicating room for improvement in that area. Nevertheless, their lineup has been able to hit home runs effectively, ranking 8th in the league.

The Tigers, with a record of 18-13, have also been performing well this season. Their offense ranks 23rd in MLB, but they have shown resilience and the ability to score runs when needed. Their team batting average and home run rankings are both low, at 27th and 27th respectively.

The starting pitchers for this game will be Marcus Stroman for the Yankees and Reese Olson for the Tigers. Stroman is a right-handed pitcher who has had a solid season so far, with a record of 2-1 and an ERA of 3.69. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, he is considered the 57th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating his overall skill level. Olson, also a right-handed pitcher, has struggled with a winless record of 0-4, but his ERA of 3.18 suggests that he has performed well despite the lack of wins.

Stroman is projected to pitch around 5.7 innings, allowing an average of 2.0 earned runs and striking out 5.4 batters. However, he is projected to struggle with allowing hits and walks, with averages of 4.9 hits and 1.7 walks. On the other hand, Olson is projected to pitch around 4.8 innings, allowing an average of 2.4 earned runs and striking out 4.5 batters. His hits and walks projections are also high, with averages of 4.4 hits and 2.2 walks.

In terms of bullpen strength, both teams have average rankings according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. The Yankees have the 19th best bullpen in MLB, while the Tigers have the 17th best.

Looking at the overall matchup, the Yankees have the advantage in terms of offensive firepower, but the Tigers have a chance to exploit Stroman's tendency to induce groundballs. The Tigers, with their lower power ranking, may be able to neutralize this aspect of Stroman's game.

The Game Total for this matchup is set at 8.0 runs, indicating an average expectation for scoring in the game. Based on the current odds, the Yankees are favored with a moneyline of -160, suggesting a 59% implied win probability, while the Tigers are the underdogs with a moneyline of +135 and a 41% implied win probability. The Yankees have a high implied team total of 4.40 runs, while the Tigers have a low implied team total of 3.60 runs based on the current odds.

As the game approaches, it will be interesting to see if the Yankees' strong offense can overcome Olson's solid pitching or if the Tigers can capitalize on Stroman's groundball tendencies. This matchup promises to be an exciting one for both teams and their fans.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

The Detroit Tigers infield defense grades out as the worst out of all the teams playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Extreme flyball bats like Javier Baez tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Marcus Stroman.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Detroit Tigers hitters jointly rank 24th- in baseball for power since the start of last season when assessing with their 91.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Marcus Stroman is an extreme groundball pitcher (52.3% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Yankee Stadium — the #9 HR venue in MLB — in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Anthony Rizzo is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 94% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

In today's game, Juan Soto is at a disadvantage facing the league's 5th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.7% rate (90th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 34 games (+6.85 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 48 away games (+16.70 Units / 31% ROI)
• Colt Keith has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.70 Units / 53% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 3.5 vs New York Yankees 4.48

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