Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros Prediction – 4/29/2025

Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

On April 29, 2025, the Houston Astros will host the Detroit Tigers in the second game of their series at Minute Maid Park. The Astros enter this matchup with a record of 15-13, currently sitting in a competitive position but underperforming relative to expectations, given their offense ranks as the 25th best in MLB. In contrast, the Tigers are riding high with an 18-11 record, showcasing a solid offensive lineup that ranks 11th overall.

In their previous encounter, the Astros got a win against the Tigers. Houston’s Ryan Gusto is set to take the mound, bringing a 3-1 record and an impressive 2.78 ERA this season. However, he’s projected to pitch only 4.9 innings today and allow 2.2 earned runs, which might not be enough against a strong Detroit offense. Gusto ranks 146th among MLB starting pitchers, indicating he’s slightly below average, especially considering the Astros' offensive struggles.

Meanwhile, Reese Olson will start for Detroit, boasting a solid 3.29 ERA and a 3.91 SIERA, which suggests he may be due for a bit of regression. Olson's ability to pitch deeper into games—averaging 5.5 innings—could give the Tigers an advantage, especially given the Astros’ 11th ranked bullpen, which is still categorized as average.

The betting lines suggest a tight contest, with both teams at -110, reflecting the perceived balance of talent. The Game Total is set at a low 7.5 runs, hinting at a potential pitching duel. Houston’s best hitter has been decent lately, but Detroit’s standout has performed even better, further tilting the scales in favor of the Tigers. As both teams look to capitalize on their respective strengths, this game promises to be an intriguing battle.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Reese Olson is an extreme groundball pitcher (47.6% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Minute Maid Park — the #10 HR venue among all major league parks — in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Zach McKinstry has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (57% of the time), but he is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Trey Sweeney hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 9th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Ryan Gusto has utilized his fastball a lot since the start of last season, though: 58.2% of the time, ranking in the 100th percentile.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Cam Smith has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.1-mph dropping to 82.7-mph over the past two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Houston Astros have been the 2nd-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in future games

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 7 of their last 9 games (+6.10 Units / 51% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 26 games (+7.73 Units / 26% ROI)
• Riley Greene has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.55 Units / 53% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.1, Houston Astros 4.14

• Date: April 29, 2025
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Reese Olson - Tigers
  • Ryan Gusto - Astros

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.