Detroit Tigers vs Colorado Rockies Prediction – 5/6/2025

As two teams with drastically different seasons prepare to face off on May 6, 2025, the Colorado Rockies and the Detroit Tigers bring contrasting narratives into their interleague matchup at Coors Field. The Rockies have struggled significantly this year, holding a record of just 6-28, while the Tigers boast a strong showing at 22-13. The Tigers are riding high with a recent impressive performance, winning their last game decisively, while the Rockies are desperate to turn around their fortunes.

On the mound, the Rockies are projected to start Chase Dollander, who has had an inconsistent season with a 2-3 record and a troubling ERA of 6.48, ranking him as an average pitcher according to advanced metrics. Dollander has been particularly unlucky this year, as suggested by his 4.08 xFIP, which points to potential improvement ahead. However, he faces a daunting challenge against a powerful Tigers offense that ranks 6th in MLB in batting average and 5th in home runs. Dollander, a high-flyball pitcher, may be vulnerable to the Tigers' power hitters, who have already tallied 47 home runs this season.

Conversely, Jackson Jobe will take the mound for Detroit. Although he is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB, he brings a perfect 2-0 record and a solid ERA of 3.38. Jobe's low strikeout rate (17.7 K%) and high groundball percentage (49%) could be advantageous against a Rockies lineup that has the most strikeouts in MLB. However, Jobe's high walk rate (13.7 BB%) could open doors for the Rockies if they show more patience at the plate.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Jackson Jobe has recorded a .224 BABIP this year, indicating that he has been one of the luckiest hurlers in the game on balls in play and regression likely forthcoming.

• Casual fans and the mainstream media don't realize that pitchers have limited control over the hits they allow, which can drastically skew their results and the way the market treats them.

Extreme groundball batters like Javier Baez are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Chase Dollander.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Detroit Tigers' bullpen profiles as the best among all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Chase Dollander is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.9% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #5 HR venue in Major League Baseball in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Kyle Farmer has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (52% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Alan Trejo ranks in the 1st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 27 games (+5.57 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Over in 23 of their last 34 games (+10.35 Units / 25% ROI)
• Zach McKinstry has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.10 Units / 27% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Detroit Tigers 5.11, Colorado Rockies 4.69

• Date: May 6, 2025
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jackson Jobe - Tigers
  • Chase Dollander - Rockies

Get daily MLB picks here.