Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Pick & Preview – 6/8/2024

Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals Details

• Date: June 8, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Feltner - Rockies
  • Kyle Gibson - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

An intriguing matchup is set for June 8, 2024, as the St. Louis Cardinals host the Colorado Rockies at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals, who have a below-average 30-32 record this season, are favored against the struggling Rockies, who sit at 22-41. This game is the third in the series, giving both teams a chance to either build momentum or rebound from previous outings.

On the mound for the Cardinals will be Kyle Gibson, a right-hander who has posted a solid 3.69 ERA through 12 starts this season. While Gibson's traditional stats look good, advanced metrics like his 4.98 xERA suggest he might be due for some regression. Still, projections by THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, indicate Gibson is expected to pitch 6.1 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs and striking out 5.3 batters. His tendency to induce groundballs (50% GB rate) could neutralize a Rockies lineup that ranks 26th in the league in home runs.

Opposing him will be Ryan Feltner for the Rockies, who has struggled mightily with a 6.22 ERA this season. However, his 4.13 xFIP suggests he has been unlucky and could perform better moving forward. Feltner is projected to pitch 5.0 innings, yielding 2.8 earned runs and striking out 3.9 batters. Like Gibson, he projects to give up a high number of hits and walks, which does not bode well against even a subpar Cardinals offense.

The Cardinals' offense ranks 22nd overall and 21st in both batting average and home runs, suggesting they’ve struggled to find consistency at the plate. On the flip side, Nolan Gorman has been a bright spot recently, batting .346 with 4 home runs and a 1.241 OPS over the last week. The Rockies’ offense, ranked 21st overall, has been slightly better in batting average at 13th, but also lacks power with a 26th-place ranking in home runs. Elias Diaz has been their standout hitter recently, batting .348 with an OPS of .988 over his last six games.

Given the Cardinals' superior bullpen, ranked 5th by advanced-stat Power Rankings compared to the Rockies’ 30th, St. Louis has a clear edge in the latter innings. Betting lines reflect this advantage, as the Cardinals are heavy favorites with a -185 moneyline, translating to a 63% implied win probability. Conversely, the Rockies are +160 underdogs with a 37% implied win probability. With the Cardinals projected to score 4.85 runs and the Rockies 3.65, St. Louis looks poised to capitalize on their pitching and bullpen strength to secure a win.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Ryan Feltner has averaged 91.9 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, placing in the 75th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Elias Diaz's footspeed has decreased this year. His 25.03 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 24.58 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies' bullpen grades out as the worst among all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Kyle Gibson's cut-fastball percentage has risen by 5% from last year to this one (16.6% to 21.6%) .

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Nolan Gorman is an extreme flyball batter and faces the strong outfield defense of Colorado (#2-best of the day).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Nolan Arenado pulls many of his flyballs (42.7% — 100th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 6th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 26 games (+3.10 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 32 games (+13.45 Units / 41% ROI)
• Nolan Gorman has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+15.35 Units / 73% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.57 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.62

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.