Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants Prediction – 5/1/2025

Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

As the San Francisco Giants prepare to face off against the Colorado Rockies on May 1, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the standings. The Giants, boasting a 19-12 record, are having a solid season, while the Rockies are struggling at 5-25, marking a dismal start. In their last outing, the Rockies got a rare win and will look to build on that today.

The matchup features two pitchers with differing trajectories. Justin Verlander is projected to start for the Giants, and while he holds an 0-2 record this year, his advanced metrics tell a different story. With a 4.99 ERA and a 4.37 xFIP, Verlander has been unlucky, suggesting he could turn things around soon. He projects to pitch 6.1 innings, allowing only 2.1 earned runs while striking out an impressive 7.0 batters on average. However, he also allows a concerning 4.6 hits and 1.7 walks, which could be a factor against the Rockies' offense.

On the other side, Kyle Freeland is expected to take the mound for Colorado. Freeland's 0-4 record and a staggering 5.93 ERA indicate a rough season. His 3.06 xFIP suggests he, too, has faced some bad luck, but he is still a low-strikeout pitcher, which could play into the hands of the Giants, who rank 6th in MLB for strikeouts.

The Giants' offense, while ranked 19th overall, has potential for improvement, especially against a Rockies team that ranks 28th in overall offensive performance. With a low Game Total of 7.5 runs, the projections lean heavily in favor of the Giants, who are favored with a moneyline of -240. This matchup presents an opportunity for the Giants to capitalize on the Rockies' struggles and continue their strong season.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

This year, Kyle Freeland has added a new pitch to his arsenal (a cutter), using it on 12.5% of his pitches.

• Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.

Extreme groundball hitters like Mickey Moniak usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Justin Verlander.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Mickey Moniak pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.2% — 82nd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Justin Verlander's 2434-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 86th percentile out of all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Heliot Ramos has struggled with his Barrel%; his 14.7% rate last season has dropped off to 9.6% this year.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The San Francisco Giants have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Tyler Fitzgerald, Sam Huff, David Villar).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.50 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.22 Units / 30% ROI)
• Matt Chapman has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+7.30 Units / 21% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.54, San Francisco Giants 4.57

• Date: May 1, 2025
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Freeland - Rockies
  • Justin Verlander - Giants

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