Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres Pick – 4/13/2025

Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

As the San Diego Padres host the Colorado Rockies on April 13, 2025, a critical National League West matchup unfolds at Petco Park. The Padres are in impressive form, currently boasting a 12-3 record and coming off a shutout victory against the Rockies by a score of 2-0 just yesterday. Conversely, the Rockies are struggling this season with a mere 3-11 record, having lost their last five games.

On the mound, the Padres are set to start Michael King, who is ranked as the 24th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. His ability to keep the ball on the ground (53 GB%) bodes well against a Rockies offense that has managed only nine home runs this season, ranking them 3rd least in the league. Despite King’s respectable strikeout rate, his high walk percentage (11.3 BB%) could play into Colorado's hands, as they are a patient lineup that doesn’t draw many walks.

On the other side, the Rockies will rely on Kyle Freeland, who has struggled this season with an 0-2 record and a higher-than-expected ERA of 3.79. Freeland's low strikeout rate (19.7 K%) presents a challenge against a Padres offense that excels at putting the ball in play, ranking 2nd least in strikeouts in MLB.

The Padres' offense ranks as the 5th best overall and leads the league in batting average, demonstrating their depth and ability to score runs. With the game total set at a low 7.0 runs, betting markets heavily favor the Padres, reflected in their moneyline of -235.

Given the current trajectory of both teams, San Diego appears poised to capitalize on Colorado’s woes, making them a strong pick for bettors looking to capitalize on the Rockies' continuing struggles.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Kyle Freeland's 91.3-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season ranks in the 17th percentile among all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Kyle Farmer's exit velocity on flyballs has declined this year; his 90.3-mph average last year has dropped off to 84.8-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Today, Mickey Moniak is at a disadvantage facing the league's 6th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 35.5% rate (90th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Compared to average, Michael King has been given an above-average leash since the start of last season, tallying an extra 4.4 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.265) implies that Elias Diaz has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season with his .301 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected batting order for the San Diego Padres in this game carries an estimated true talent wOBA of .311, which is a good deal lower than their actual wOBA of .330 this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.25 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.70 Units / 34% ROI)
• Yuli Gurriel has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.60 Units / 32% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3, San Diego Padres 4.16

• Date: April 13, 2025
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Freeland - Rockies
  • Michael King - Padres

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