Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Pick & Preview – 9/20/2024

• Date: September 20, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Freeland - Rockies
  • Justin Wrobleski - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

As the Los Angeles Dodgers and Colorado Rockies prepare to face off on September 20, 2024, the stakes are vastly different for the two National League West rivals. The Dodgers, boasting a strong 91-62 record, are firmly in contention for the division, while the Rockies, at 59-94, are enduring a challenging season. The Dodgers' explosive offense, ranked 2nd in MLB, is a key factor in their success this year. Meanwhile, the Rockies' offense ranks 20th, highlighting the disparity between these two teams.

The Dodgers enter this matchup after a commanding 20-4 victory over the Miami Marlins on September 19. This offensive outburst underscores the team's potency at the plate, with Shohei Ohtani leading the way this season. On the mound, Justin Wrobleski will start for Los Angeles. While his 6.40 ERA suggests struggles, his xFIP of 5.40 indicates some bad luck, hinting at potential improvement. The Rockies, on the other hand, come off a 9-4 loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Kyle Freeland, their starter for this game, has a 4.89 ERA, but his xFIP of 4.30 suggests he's also been a bit unlucky.

From a betting perspective, the Dodgers are significant favorites with a moneyline of -230, translating to an implied win probability of 68%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, aligns closely with this, giving the Dodgers a 67% chance to emerge victorious. Los Angeles's potent offense, combined with Wrobleski's potential for better outings, gives them an edge. Additionally, the Dodgers' ability to draw walks could be neutralized by Freeland's control, adding an intriguing layer to this matchup.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Kyle Freeland’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 starts (2228 rpm) has been significantly lower than than his seasonal rate (2280 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

In the past two weeks' worth of games, Brendan Rodgers's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.6% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Compared to their .320 overall projected rate, the .297 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected lineup in this game suggests this version of the lineup a good deal a bit watered down.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Compared to the average starting pitcher, Justin Wrobleski has been granted a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an -10.1 fewer adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Freddie Freeman has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Los Angeles Dodgers batters as a group rank 3rd- in the game for power this year when using their 9.2% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 69 games (+17.90 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 51 of their last 121 games (+8.19 Units / 7% ROI)
• Mookie Betts has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 34 games (+11.25 Units / 20% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 4.06 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.66

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.