Colorado Rockies vs Kansas City Royals Pick – 4/22/2025

Colorado Rockies vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

On April 22, 2025, the Kansas City Royals will host the Colorado Rockies at Kauffman Stadium in what promises to be a compelling matchup between two struggling teams. Both squads are facing tough seasons, with the Royals sitting at 9-14 and the Rockies even worse at 4-17. Kansas City is coming off a rough stretch, but the Royals will look to capitalize on their home field advantage against a Rockies team that ranks 24th in offensive production this year.

Projected starters Kris Bubic and Ryan Feltner offer contrasting profiles, with Bubic recently demonstrating solid form. He holds a 2-1 record and an impressive ERA of 1.88, making him the 57th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. Bubic's high strikeout rate of 26.2% could pose a serious challenge for a Rockies offense that leads the league in strikeouts. However, his peripherals suggest he might have been a bit lucky this season, raising questions about his sustainability.

On the other hand, Ryan Feltner has struggled, managing a 0-1 record and a below-average ERA of 4.82. His projections indicate he could allow 3.0 earned runs today, which isn’t ideal against a Royals offense that, despite its struggles, ranks better than the Rockies at 24th in team batting average.

The advanced-stat Power Rankings highlight the Royals' bullpen as the 25th best in MLB, while the Rockies boast a much stronger bullpen, ranked 6th. This disparity could play a crucial role late in the game, especially if Bubic can keep the Rockies at bay early on.

With the Royals favored at -210 on the moneyline, they have an implied team total of 4.99 runs. The Rockies, on the other hand, are underdogs at +180, with a low implied total of 3.51 runs. This game may hinge on whether Bubic can continue his strong performance against a Rockies lineup that has struggled to find its footing this season.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Ryan Feltner's fastball velocity has decreased 1.5 mph this season (93 mph) below where it was last year (94.5 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Extreme groundball hitters like Mickey Moniak generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Kris Bubic.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Colorado Rockies bullpen ranks as the 5th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Compared to the average pitcher, Kris Bubic has been granted a shorter leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, tallying an -13.3 fewer adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Michael Massey has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (85% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Hunter Renfroe pulls many of his flyballs (39.2% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 4th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.75 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.70 Units / 27% ROI)
• Jonathan India has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.75 Units / 60% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.75, Kansas City Royals 4.83

• Date: April 22, 2025
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Feltner - Rockies
  • Kris Bubic - Royals

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