Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves Prediction For 9/4/2024

• Date: September 4, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bradley Blalock - Rockies
  • Charlie Morton - Braves

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to host the Colorado Rockies on September 4, 2024, the stakes are low for the Rockies, who have been struggling all season with a disappointing record of 51-88. Meanwhile, the Braves stand at 75-63, enjoying an above-average season. Atlanta's playoff aspirations remain intact, while the Rockies seem to be playing for pride at this point.

In yesterday's matchup, the Braves continued their solid performance with a 3-0 victory over the Rockies. The Braves are projected to have an impressive showing today with veteran right-hander Charlie Morton on the mound. Morton, ranked as the 105th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, balances out his mediocre Win/Loss record (7-7) with an average ERA of 4.26. Still, he’s expected to pitch over 5 innings, allowing around 2.3 earned runs and striking out an impressive 7.4 batters on average.

The Rockies will counter with Bradley Blalock, a much less favorable option who has struggled significantly, boasting an ERA of 4.98 over his 4 starts this year. The projections suggest that Blalock will only pitch about 4.5 innings, giving up around 3.0 earned runs, while striking out just 3.3 batters. This matchup appears to heavily favor the Braves.

Offensively, the Braves rank 13th overall and have a potent power display with a ranking of 10th in team home runs. In contrast, the Rockies also show some power with a similar ranking in home runs at 10th but lack consistency, ranking 19th in offensive efficiency overall.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Bradley Blalock has a reverse platoon split and has the misfortune of going up against 6 same-handed hitters in today's game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Over the past week, Nolan Jones's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.3% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Colorado Rockies batters jointly rank in the cellar of MLB this year ( 9th-worst) when it comes to their 88.4-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

The Atlanta Braves infield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst out of every team playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Marcell Ozuna has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 98.7-mph average to last season's 96.5-mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Jarred Kelenic hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 73 of their last 116 games (+28.70 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 17 away games (+5.10 Units / 26% ROI)
• Gio Urshela has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+8.00 Units / 38% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.93 vs Atlanta Braves 5.2

Get daily MLB picks here.