Cleveland Guardians vs San Diego Padres Prediction – 4/2/2025

Cleveland Guardians vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

On April 2, 2025, the San Diego Padres will host the Cleveland Guardians at Petco Park for the third game of their series. The Padres, currently boasting an unbeaten record of 6-0 this season, have shown strong early-season form. Meanwhile, the Guardians are struggling with a 2-3 record, marking them as underdogs heading into this matchup.

Dylan Cease is projected to take the mound for the Padres, and while he currently holds an ERA of 6.23, advanced metrics suggest he has been a bit unlucky this season. His 2.75 xFIP indicates that better performances could be on the horizon, especially against a Guardians offense that ranks 17th in the league. Cease has only pitched one game this year, projecting to average 5.6 innings while allowing 2.1 earned runs and striking out 6.3 batters.

On the other hand, Ben Lively is set to start for the Guardians, and he too has only one start this year, with a disappointing ERA of 5.40. The projections indicate that Lively will struggle against a Padres lineup that, despite ranking 19th offensively, is adept at limiting strikeouts, ranking 6th in that category.

The Padres' bullpen is also a significant strength, ranked 3rd in MLB, which could capitalize on any late-game opportunities. With a low Game Total of 7.5 runs and a moneyline of -175 favoring the Padres, expectations are high for them to continue their winning streak. Meanwhile, the Guardians, with a moneyline of +150, may find it challenging to overcome their early-season woes against a team that has shown elite potential, thanks to their strong pitching and an impressive bullpen.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Ben Lively's high utilization rate of his fastball (60.2% since the start of last season) is likely hurting his results, since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Carlos Santana's quickness has decreased this season. His 25.93 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 23.55 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Cleveland Guardians have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Gabriel Arias, Bo Naylor, Nolan Jones).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Dylan Cease's 2556.5-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season grades out in the 97th percentile out of all starting pitchers.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

In terms of his batting average, Jake Cronenworth has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season. His .240 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .282.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

The San Diego Padres bullpen grades out as the 3rd-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 60 of their last 93 games (+21.10 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 76 away games (+14.40 Units / 17% ROI)

• Date: April 2, 2025
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ben Lively - Guardians
  • Dylan Cease - Padres

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