Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 4/17/2024

Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox Overview

• Date: April 17, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ben Lively - Guardians
  • Tanner Houck - Red Sox
• Run Line: Guardians 1.5 -165, Red Sox -1.5 145
• Money Line: Guardians 120, Red Sox -140
• Total (Over/Under):9.5 -110

Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Cleveland Guardians - 44%
• Boston Red Sox - 56%

Projected Win %:

• Cleveland Guardians - 42.1%
• Boston Red Sox - 57.9%

Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox Game Preview & Prediction

In a highly anticipated American League matchup, the Boston Red Sox will face off against the Cleveland Guardians on April 17, 2024, at Fenway Park. The Red Sox, with a record of 9-9 this season, are considered to be having an average season so far. On the other hand, the Guardians boast an impressive record of 12-5, indicating that they are having a great season.

The Red Sox, as the home team, will look to capitalize on their home field advantage. They are projected to start right-handed pitcher Tanner Houck, who has been performing well this year. Houck has started three games, with a win-loss record of 2-1 and an impressive ERA of 2.04. However, it's important to note that his 2.91 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky so far and could see a decline in performance going forward.

Facing Houck will be the Guardians' right-handed pitcher Ben Lively. Lively, projected to start the game, is expected to pitch an average of 4.3 innings. His performance this season has been less impressive, with an ERA of 2.7 and a high projection of 4.8 hits allowed per game.

In terms of offense, the Red Sox rank 22nd in MLB this season, while the Guardians rank 11th. The Red Sox have a higher team batting average, ranking 3rd in MLB, but they lag behind in team home runs, ranking 18th. The Guardians, on the other hand, excel in stolen bases, ranking 7th in the league.

According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, the Red Sox bullpen ranks 17th in MLB, while the Guardians bullpen ranks 14th. This suggests that both teams have average bullpen strength.

The betting odds favor the Red Sox, with a moneyline of -140 and an implied win probability of 56%. The Guardians are considered underdogs with a moneyline of +120 and an implied win probability of 44%.

Overall, this matchup promises to be an exciting game between two teams with contrasting records this season. The Red Sox will rely on their home field advantage and the strong pitching of Tanner Houck, while the Guardians will aim to continue their great season and take advantage of Ben Lively's weaknesses. With the odds in their favor, the Red Sox will look to secure a victory in front of their home crowd.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

The Boston Red Sox have 8 hitters in the projected offense that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ben Lively in today's game, which is especially troublesome given his large platoon split.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Tyler Freeman has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (75% of the time), but he is projected to hit 9th in the lineup today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

The Cleveland Guardians have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Reese McGuire can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Jarren Duran has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.45 Units / 42% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 66 of their last 121 games (+8.25 Units / 6% ROI)

Guardians vs Red Sox Prediction: Guardians 4.58 - Red Sox 5.15

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