Cleveland Guardians at Philadelphia Phillies Pick For 7/26/2024

Cleveland Guardians vs Philadelphia Phillies Details

• Date: July 26, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ben Lively - Guardians
  • Cristopher Sanchez - Phillies

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies and Cleveland Guardians are set to clash on July 26, 2024, at Citizens Bank Park. Both teams are having stellar seasons, with the Phillies boasting a 64-38 record and the Guardians close behind at 61-41. This interleague matchup marks the first game in their series, and it promises to be an intriguing battle.

Cristopher Sanchez takes the mound for the Phillies, bringing a solid 7-5 record and an impressive 2.97 ERA. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Sanchez is the 33rd best starting pitcher in baseball this year. However, his 3.59 xERA suggests he might have been a bit fortunate so far. The Phillies' offense, ranked 5th in MLB, should provide ample support. They rank 3rd in team batting average, 6th in home runs, and 4th in stolen bases. Nick Castellanos, their best hitter over the last week, has been on fire, hitting .391 with a 1.156 OPS.

On the other side, Ben Lively will start for the Guardians. Despite an 8-6 record and a respectable 3.57 ERA, Lively's 4.27 xFIP indicates he might be due for regression. The Phillies' powerful lineup could exploit his high-flyball tendencies, as they have already launched 124 home runs this season. The Guardians' offense, ranked 12th in MLB, relies more on balance and speed, ranking 8th in stolen bases.

Both bullpens are elite, with the Guardians ranked 1st and the Phillies 3rd in advanced-stat Power Rankings. This could turn the game into a battle of the bullpens if the starters struggle.

The Phillies are favored with a moneyline of -170, giving them an implied win probability of 61%. Given the strength of their offense and the edge in starting pitching, they look poised to take the first game of this series. The Guardians, though underdogs at +150, will look to their balanced attack and top-ranked bullpen to pull off the upset.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Out of all the teams in action today, the strongest infield defense is that of the Cleveland Guardians.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Hitters such as Jose Ramirez with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Cristopher Sanchez who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians' bullpen profiles as the best among all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Cristopher Sanchez has tallied 17.2 outs per GS this year, placing in the 78th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Alec Bohm has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 8% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past 14 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Brandon Marsh has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 54 of their last 85 games (+20.20 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 90 games (+6.67 Units / 6% ROI)
• Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 35 games (+9.75 Units / 18% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 3.9 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.93

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