Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins Game 2 Best Bet – 8/9/2024

Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins Game 2 Details

• Date: August 9, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Alex Cobb - Guardians
  • Louie Varland - Twins

Guardians vs Twins Game 2 Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins Game 2 Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins Game 2 Betting Preview

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to host the Cleveland Guardians on August 9, 2024, both teams are looking to gain momentum in this critical matchup. The Guardians are currently sitting at 67-47, enjoying a strong season, while the Twins, with a record of 63-50, are having a solid campaign as well. This game marks the second in a double-header from Target Field.

On the mound, the Twins will send Louie Varland, who has struggled this season with an 0-4 record and a 6.58 ERA. While Varland's underlying metrics suggest he may be due for better results, evidenced by his 4.20 xFIP, his poor performance has raised concerns among fans and bettors alike. He will need to improve on his projected 5.5 hits and 1.3 walks allowed if he hopes to keep the Guardians' potent offense at bay.

Conversely, Alex Cobb will take the hill for the Guardians. Despite a rough outing in his last start, where he allowed 5 earned runs in just 2 innings pitched, Cobb has been more reliable overall, ranking as the 71st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. His ability to limit runs could be crucial, especially facing a Twins lineup that ranks 6th in the league in overall offensive production.

Betting markets have this game as a toss-up, with both teams' moneyline set at -110, implying a close contest. Projections suggest that the Guardians may have the edge, with expectations to score around 4.56 runs, compared to the Twins' 4.18. As both teams vie for critical wins, this matchup promises to deliver excitement and drama for fans and bettors alike.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Given that flyball pitchers are least effective against groundball hitters, Alex Cobb (53.6% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 2 GB hitters in Minnesota's projected offense.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Jose Ramirez is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Minnesota (#2-worst on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Austin Hedges, the Guardians's expected catcher today, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Willi Castro has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (58% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Minnesota has really struggled to hit the ball hard. If you look at the top 5% of their batted balls by exit velocity, their average (91.7 mph) ranks among the league's worst: #24 in the game this year.

• Average exit velocity can be misleading. By focusing on a hitter's best-hit balls, we can better isolate his underlying talent and what he will do in the future.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 44 games at home (+13.35 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 56 away games (+8.95 Units / 15% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins Game 2 Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.56 vs Minnesota Twins 4.18

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