Cleveland Guardians at Miami Marlins Best Bet – 6/9/2024

Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins Details

• Date: June 9, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carlos Carrasco - Guardians
  • Trevor Rogers - Marlins

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins and Cleveland Guardians are set to clash on June 9, 2024, at LoanDepot Park in an Interleague matchup. The Marlins, sitting at a dismal 22-41 record, are struggling this season, while the Guardians boast an impressive 40-22 record and are having a great season. This game marks the third in their series, with the Marlins looking to salvage some pride at home.

Trevor Rogers will take the mound for the Marlins. Rogers, a left-handed pitcher, has had a rough season with a 1-7 record and a 5.68 ERA. Despite these numbers, his 4.32 xFIP suggests that he has been somewhat unlucky and could see better days ahead. However, his low strikeout rate (17.4%) could be a significant disadvantage against a Guardians lineup that ranks 5th in the league in the fewest strikeouts. The Marlins' offense, which ranks 29th overall, will need to step up against Carlos Carrasco, who will start for the Guardians. Carrasco, with a 2-5 record and a 5.66 ERA, has also been unlucky, as indicated by his 4.41 xFIP.

The Marlins' offense has been inconsistent, ranking 16th in batting average but 28th in home runs. They will need a strong performance from Josh Bell, their best hitter over the last week, who has posted a .400 batting average and a 1.179 OPS in his last five games. The Guardians, on the other hand, have a more balanced offensive attack, ranking 12th overall and 7th in stolen bases. Daniel Schneemann has been their standout performer recently, boasting a .444 average and a 1.323 OPS over his last four games.

The Marlins' bullpen, ranked 27th, will have a tough task against the Guardians' 4th-ranked bullpen. The projections from THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, give the Marlins a slight edge with a 53% win probability, despite the betting markets seeing this as a close game with both teams having an implied win probability of 50%.

In what promises to be a tight contest, the Marlins will need to capitalize on any opportunities they get, while the Guardians will look to maintain their strong form and continue their push for postseason success.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Carlos Carrasco has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 7.6 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Andres Gimenez has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (88% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Jose Ramirez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.3% — 99th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 8th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

The Cleveland Guardians have 6 hitters in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage over Trevor Rogers today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

This year, there has been a decline in Josh Bell's speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 25.92 ft/sec last year to 24.96 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

It may be best to expect better results for the Miami Marlins offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the unluckiest offense in baseball this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 44 games (+9.45 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 56 games (+11.87 Units / 16% ROI)
• Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 10 of his last 48 games (+11.70 Units / 24% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.69 vs Miami Marlins 4.52

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