Cleveland Guardians vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 24, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Allen - Guardians
  • Patrick Sandoval - Angels

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated American League matchup, the Los Angeles Angels are set to take on the Cleveland Guardians on May 24, 2024, at Angel Stadium. The Angels, who hold a disappointing 20-30 record this season, will be looking to turn their fortunes around against the Guardians, who boast an impressive 33-17 record.

The Angels, serving as the home team, will rely on left-handed pitcher Patrick Sandoval to lead them on the mound. Sandoval, currently ranked as the #49 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, has started 10 games this season and holds a 2-6 record with a 4.59 ERA. Despite his average ERA, Sandoval's 3.68 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

On the other side, the Guardians will send left-handed pitcher Logan Allen to the mound. Allen, considered a below-average pitcher by MLB standards, has started 10 games this season and holds a 5-2 record with a 4.91 ERA. However, his 4.16 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and is also expected to improve in future outings.

The Angels' offense ranks as the 12th best in MLB this season, with a solid team batting average. They have displayed power at the plate, ranking third in team home runs. However, their stolen base ranking is poor, sitting at 27th in the league. In contrast, the Guardians' offense ranks as the 15th best in MLB, with an average team batting average. They excel in the stolen bases department, ranking 7th in the league, but struggle with home runs, ranking last.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Angels find themselves near the bottom, ranked 29th out of 30 teams, while the Guardians possess the third-best bullpen in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings.

Based on the current odds, the Angels are slight favorites with a projected win probability of 57% according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. This projection suggests that there may be value in betting on the Angels, as their win probability is 7% greater than the betting market implies.

With both teams looking to make a statement, this game promises to be a thrilling showdown between the struggling Angels and the surging Guardians. Will the Angels find a way to overcome their poor season and come out on top, or will the Guardians continue their winning ways? Baseball fans and sports bettors alike will be eagerly awaiting the outcome of this exciting contest.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Logan Allen's cut-fastball utilization has increased by 9.6% from last year to this one (8.7% to 18.3%) .

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Josh Naylor's speed has fallen off this year. His 25.8 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 24.89 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Austin Hedges, the Guardians's expected catcher in today's matchup, projects as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Over his last 3 starts, Patrick Sandoval has suffered a significant decrease in his fastball spin rate: from 1938 rpm over the entire season to 1879 rpm recently.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.133) implies that Jo Adell has had some very good luck since the start of last season with his .225 actual batting average.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels' bullpen ranks as the worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.70 Units / 51% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Run Line in 25 of their last 43 games (+9.75 Units / 19% ROI)
• Jo Adell has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+9.70 Units / 25% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.12 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.43

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.