Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox Best Bet – 4/15/2024

Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox Overview

• Date: April 15, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Xzavion Curry - Guardians
  • Kutter Crawford - Red Sox
• Run Line: Guardians 1.5 -175, Red Sox -1.5 150
• Money Line: Guardians 115, Red Sox -135
• Total (Over/Under):9.5 100

Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Cleveland Guardians - 45%
• Boston Red Sox - 55%

Projected Win %:

• Cleveland Guardians - 43.04%
• Boston Red Sox - 56.96%

Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox Game Preview & Prediction

On April 15, 2024, the Boston Red Sox will face off against the Cleveland Guardians at Fenway Park. As the home team, the Red Sox will look to continue their good season, currently holding a record of 9-7. The Guardians, having a great season with a record of 10-5, will aim to maintain their momentum on the road.

The Red Sox are projected to start right-handed pitcher Kutter Crawford, who has been performing above average according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. With an impressive ERA of 0.57 this season, Crawford has shown excellent form. However, his 4.06 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could face challenges in future performances. On average, Crawford is projected to pitch 4.9 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, striking out 4.1 batters, and allowing 4.8 hits and 1.5 walks.

Opposing Crawford on the mound will be right-handed pitcher Xzavion Curry of the Guardians. According to our projections, Curry is one of the worst pitchers in MLB. On average, he is expected to pitch 4.0 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, striking out 3.1 batters, and allowing 4.4 hits and 1.3 walks.

In terms of offense, the Red Sox rank 21st in MLB, while the Guardians rank 14th. The Red Sox have a strong batting average, ranking 3rd in the league, but their home run and stolen base rankings are average. The Guardians, on the other hand, have an average batting average and stolen base ranking, but rank last in home runs.

Based on the current odds, the Red Sox are favored to win with a higher implied win probability of 54%. However, the Guardians have a chance to upset the Red Sox, as indicated by their implied win probability of 46%.

Overall, this matchup presents an interesting clash between the Red Sox's strong offense and the Guardians' solid pitching. The outcome of the game will likely depend on how well Crawford can capitalize on his high strikeout rate against the Guardians' low-strikeout offense. Additionally, Crawford's tendency for flyballs may work in his favor against the Guardians' lack of power.

As the game unfolds, it will be intriguing to see if the Red Sox can maintain their good season or if the Guardians will continue their impressive run. With both teams having their strengths and weaknesses, this game has the potential to be a closely contested battle on the diamond.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Xzavion Curry to be on a pitch count in today's game, projecting a maximum of 79 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

This year, there has been a decline in Josh Naylor's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 25.8 ft/sec last year to 24.69 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Cleveland Guardians hitters as a unit grade out 30th- in the league for power since the start of last season when judging by their 5.2% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Kutter Crawford's higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this year (69.6% compared to 61.4% last year) should work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Masataka Yoshida is an extreme groundball batter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Cleveland (#1-best on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Jarren Duran has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Guardians vs Red Sox Prediction: Guardians 4.91 - Red Sox 5.39

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