Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles Pick For 6/26/2024

Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles Details

• Date: June 26, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Carlos Carrasco - Guardians
  • Grayson Rodriguez - Orioles

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

The Baltimore Orioles and Cleveland Guardians square off on June 26, 2024, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in what promises to be a compelling American League matchup. Both teams are having impressive seasons, with the Orioles boasting a 49-30 record and the Guardians slightly ahead at 51-26. This game marks the third in their series, with Baltimore looking to capitalize on their home-field advantage.

For the Orioles, Grayson Rodriguez takes the mound. Rodriguez has been stellar this year, holding an 8-2 record with a 3.20 ERA. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, he's the 52nd best starting pitcher out of approximately 350, underscoring his effectiveness. Despite his high strikeout rate of 26.6%, he'll face a challenge against a Guardians lineup that is the 3rd best in avoiding strikeouts. Rodriguez is projected to pitch 5.8 innings and allow 2.4 earned runs on average, which bodes well for Baltimore.

The Guardians counter with Carlos Carrasco, who has struggled this season. Carrasco is 2-6 with a 5.80 ERA, making him one of the least effective starters in MLB this year. His 4.52 xFIP indicates he's been somewhat unlucky, but the projections are not optimistic, forecasting 4.8 innings pitched and 3.3 earned runs allowed.

Offensively, the Orioles are a powerhouse. They rank 2nd in overall offense, 7th in batting average, and lead MLB in home runs. Gunnar Henderson has been particularly hot, hitting .370 with a 1.366 OPS over the last week. On the other side, the Guardians' offense is ranked 13th overall but has shown flashes of power, ranking 9th in home runs. Bo Naylor has been their standout hitter recently, batting .444 with a 1.418 OPS over the last week.

Baltimore's bullpen ranks 12th, while Cleveland's is an impressive 3rd, suggesting late-game scenarios could favor the Guardians. However, according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Orioles have a 67% chance of winning, significantly higher than the implied win probability of 62% from current betting odds. This indicates potential value in betting on Baltimore. The Orioles are projected to score 5.36 runs compared to the Guardians' 3.90, reinforcing their status as favorites in this high-stakes matchup.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

With 6 batters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team's projected batting order, Carlos Carrasco will be in a tough position while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Baltimore's 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate today creates a favorable matchup for Jose Ramirez, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.6% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Out of all the teams in action today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Baltimore Orioles.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

As a switch-hitter who bats worse from the 0 side of the dish, Anthony Santander will bat from his bad side against Carlos Carrasco today.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The 3rd-best projected lineup on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the the Baltimore Orioles.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 41 of their last 71 games (+17.45 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 32 games (+15.45 Units / 39% ROI)
• Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+9.35 Units / 53% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.2 vs Baltimore Orioles 5.4

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