Cincinnati Reds vs Texas Rangers Betting Pick & Preview – 4/27/2024

Cincinnati Reds vs Texas Rangers Betting Pick & Prediction & Preview

• Date: April 27, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hunter Greene - Reds
  • Michael Lorenzen - Rangers
• Run Line: Reds 1.5 -185, Rangers -1.5 160
• Money Line: Reds 110, Rangers -130
• Total (Over/Under): 9

Cincinnati Reds vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Cincinnati Reds - 46%
• Texas Rangers - 54%

Projected Win %:

• Cincinnati Reds - 38.91%
• Texas Rangers - 61.09%

Cincinnati Reds vs Texas Rangers Game Preview & Prediction

In an exciting interleague matchup, the Texas Rangers will host the Cincinnati Reds at Globe Life Field on April 27, 2024. The Rangers have been having an above-average season with a 14-13 record, while the Reds are also performing well with a 14-12 record.

Taking the mound for the Rangers is right-handed pitcher Michael Lorenzen. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Lorenzen is currently ranked 169th out of approximately 350 pitchers. While his ERA of 2.45 is excellent, his 3.96 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky this year and could see a decline in performance going forward. On the other side, the Reds will start right-handed pitcher Hunter Greene, who is ranked 67th on our Power Rankings. Greene has an average ERA of 4.55 but a lower xFIP, indicating that he has been unlucky and may perform better in future outings.

The Rangers have a strong offense, ranking 11th best in MLB this season. They excel in team batting average, ranking second, and team home runs, ranking fifth. However, their stolen bases rank poorly at 25th. The Reds' offense is also solid, ranking 18th overall. They have a strong emphasis on stolen bases, ranking first in MLB, but have average rankings in team batting average and home runs.

When it comes to the bullpen, the Rangers are considered the 19th best in MLB according to our Power Rankings, while the Reds' bullpen ranks 21st. This suggests that both teams have average bullpen talent.

The game total for this matchup is set at 9.0 runs, indicating a potentially high-scoring game. The current moneyline favors the Rangers at -130, giving them a 54% implied win probability, while the Reds sit at +110 with a 46% implied win probability. These odds suggest that it will be a close game.

Based on the projections, the Rangers have a higher team total of 4.71 runs compared to the Reds' 4.29 runs. However, it's important to note that Michael Lorenzen, the Rangers' starting pitcher, has struggled with control issues, with a high walk rate this season. This could work in favor of the Reds, who have shown patience at the plate and rank sixth in walks in MLB.

Overall, this matchup promises to be an exciting and closely contested game. The Rangers' potent offense and the Reds' ability to draw walks could be deciding factors in the outcome. Make sure to tune in and enjoy the action on the field.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

The Texas Rangers have 6 hitters in the projected offense that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Hunter Greene today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Will Benson in the 6th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Today, Will Benson is at a disadvantage facing the league's 6th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40.2% rate (98th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Out of every team today, the 5th-strongest infield defense is that of the the Texas Rangers.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Wyatt Langford is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 52% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Jonah Heim, the Rangers's expected catcher today, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Run Line in 84 of their last 151 games (+19.35 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 60 away games (+20.80 Units / 34% ROI)
• Jonathan India has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+11.30 Units / 126% ROI)

Reds vs Rangers Prediction: Reds 4.3 - Rangers 5.12

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