Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals Prediction – 5/8/2025

On May 8, 2025, the Kansas City Royals will host the Chicago White Sox at Kauffman Stadium in what is shaping up to be an intriguing matchup. The Royals, currently sitting at 22-16, are having a solid season, while the White Sox are struggling at 10-27. In their last encounter, the Royals managed to secure a win, moving them to within two games of first place in the American League Central standings.

Kris Bubic is projected to take the mound for the Royals, boasting a 3-2 record and an impressive 1.98 ERA this season. His performance places him as the 61st best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he is above average. Bubic's ability to limit earned runs is complemented by his average projection of 5.5 innings pitched and 2.2 earned runs allowed today. However, he also projects to allow 5.0 hits and 1.9 walks, which could be a concern.

On the other side, Davis Martin will start for the White Sox. With a 1-3 record and a 3.52 ERA, Martin has been decent but is considered one of the weaker pitchers in MLB according to the projections. He’s projected to pitch 5.0 innings while allowing 2.9 earned runs, which could play into the Royals' favor given their offensive struggles, ranking 25th in MLB.

Despite their low offensive rankings, the Royals have the advantage of facing a low-strikeout pitcher in Martin, which may help them capitalize on scoring opportunities. The Royals are favored with a moneyline of -245, reflecting a strong belief in their ability to win this matchup. With the White Sox's poor performance this season, the Royals look to build on their recent success and solidify their standing in the division.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Davis Martin's higher usage rate of his fastball this year (36.1 compared to 28.3% last season) is not ideal considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Extreme flyball bats like Miguel Vargas are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Kris Bubic.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

In today's matchup, Michael A. Taylor is at a disadvantage facing the league's 4th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40.6% rate (99th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Out of all starting pitchers, Kris Bubic's fastball velocity of 91.6 mph is in the 21st percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Michael Massey is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 69% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Kansas City Royals (20.6 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy batting order on the slate today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 30 games (+14.05 Units / 41% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 away games (+6.70 Units / 37% ROI)
• Andrew Vaughn has hit the RBIs Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.05 Units / 28% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago White Sox 3.87, Kansas City Royals 4.97

• Date: May 8, 2025
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Davis Martin - White Sox
  • Kris Bubic - Royals

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