Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals Pick – 5/7/2025

As the Kansas City Royals host the Chicago White Sox on May 7, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting situations. The Royals are enjoying a solid season with a 21-16 record, while the White Sox are struggling at 10-26. This matchup is crucial for both teams, especially for the Royals, who are looking to build on their momentum after winning five of their last six games.

In their previous encounter, the Royals secured a decisive victory, showcasing their ability to capitalize on the vulnerabilities of the White Sox. Kansas City's offense, however, ranks just 25th in MLB, indicating inconsistency despite their recent success. The projections suggest that the Royals will score around 4.73 runs today, which is significantly higher than the White Sox's expected total of 3.27 runs.

On the mound, the Royals are set to start Michael Wacha, who, despite a 1-4 record this season, is ranked as the 72nd best starting pitcher in MLB and boasts a respectable ERA of 3.52. His ability to limit earned runs—projected at 2.2 today—should pose a challenge for a White Sox lineup that ranks 29th in overall offensive performance and struggles with strikeouts, making Wacha a favorable matchup.

Conversely, Jonathan Cannon, projected to start for the White Sox, has had a rocky season. Although his ERA of 4.26 appears average, he is considered one of the worst pitchers in the league based on advanced stats. Cannon's high-walk rate of 10.1% against a Royals offense that rarely draws walks could lessen his effectiveness.

With a significant betting line favoring Kansas City at -220, the Royals look poised to continue their winning ways, while the White Sox will need a remarkable turnaround to stay competitive in this matchup.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Jonathan Cannon was firing on all cylinders in his last start and conceded 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Luis Robert Jr. has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87.7-mph to 97.9-mph over the last 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Miguel Vargas hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 4th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Michael Wacha is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.2% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #30 HR venue in the majors in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Typically, batters like Salvador Perez who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Jonathan Cannon.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 5th-least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the Kansas City Royals with a 20.6% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 36 games (+15.55 Units / 37% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 20 games (+5.10 Units / 23% ROI)
• Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 9 games (+6.55 Units / 73% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago White Sox 4.02, Kansas City Royals 4.59

• Date: May 7, 2025
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jonathan Cannon - White Sox
  • Michael Wacha - Royals

Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.