Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers Prediction For 7/23/2024

Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers Details

• Date: July 23, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Garrett Crochet - White Sox
  • Jon Gray - Rangers

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

As the Texas Rangers and Chicago White Sox prepare for their matchup on July 23, 2024, at Globe Life Field, both teams find themselves in less-than-ideal positions this season. The Rangers, with a 48-52 record, are having a below-average season, while the White Sox, sitting at 27-75, are enduring a disastrous campaign. This game will be the second in the series between these two struggling American League teams.

The Rangers will send Jon Gray to the mound. Gray, a right-handed pitcher, has started 16 games this year, posting a 4-4 record with a 3.96 ERA. However, his 4.82 xERA suggests that he has been somewhat fortunate and may regress. Gray's peripherals indicate he could struggle, as he projects to allow 4.3 hits and 1.1 walks on average today, both of which are terrible marks. His projected 4.6 strikeouts are below-average, hinting that the White Sox hitters might have some opportunities.

On the other side, the White Sox will counter with Garrett Crochet, a left-handed pitcher who has been one of the few bright spots for Chicago this season. Crochet is ranked as the #4 starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, making him an elite talent. Despite his 6-6 record, his 3.02 ERA and 2.41 xFIP suggest he's been unlucky and could perform even better. Crochet projects to allow just 1.8 earned runs and strike out 6.4 batters on average today, which are excellent figures.

Offensively, both teams have their challenges. The Rangers rank 23rd in overall offense, 19th in batting average, and 17th in home runs, all of which are average or below. The White Sox, meanwhile, rank dead last in overall offense and near the bottom in batting average and home runs. However, they do rank 14th in stolen bases, an area where they might look to exploit the Rangers.

In their last game, the Rangers saw a standout performance from Nate Lowe, who has hit .333 with a 1.050 OPS over the last week. Meanwhile, Tommy Pham has been the White Sox's best hitter recently, also batting .333 with a .944 OPS over the last seven days.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Rangers are favored with a 59% win probability, higher than the betting market's implied 54%. This suggests there may be value in betting on the Rangers, despite their overall struggles. With both teams looking to salvage some pride in this series, expect a competitive game at Globe Life Field.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

With 8 hitters who hit from the other side in the opposing team's projected offense, Garrett Crochet meets a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Andrew Benintendi is likely to have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Texas Rangers has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Chicago White Sox have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Luis Robert, Korey Lee, Paul DeJong).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Jon Gray’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 outings (1947 rpm) has been considerably lower than than his seasonal rate (2025 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.351) implies that Marcus Semien has experienced some negative variance this year with his .308 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Texas Rangers batters jointly rank 22nd- in Major League Baseball for power this year when assessing with their 7.3% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 55 of their last 98 games (+13.45 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 22 away games (+6.50 Units / 27% ROI)
• Luis Robert has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+10.45 Units / 39% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 3.63 vs Texas Rangers 3.88

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