Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Prediction, Odds, Picks – 5/1/2024

Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 1, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Shota Imanaga - Cubs
  • Jose Butto - Mets
• Run Line: Cubs -1.5 145, Mets 1.5 -170
• Money Line: Cubs -120, Mets 100
• Total (Over/Under): 7.5

Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Chicago Cubs - 52%
• New York Mets - 48%

Projected Win %:

• Chicago Cubs - 48.28%
• New York Mets - 51.72%

Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Game Preview & Prediction

On May 1, 2024, the New York Mets will face off against the Chicago Cubs in an exciting National League matchup at Citi Field. The Mets, with a record of 15-14, are having an above-average season, while the Cubs boast an impressive 18-12 record, indicating a great season for them.

The Mets will be the home team, playing in front of their fans at Citi Field. The game is the third in the series between these two teams, with the Mets looking to bounce back after their previous game.

The Mets are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jose Butto, who has had a solid season so far. Although his win/loss record stands at 0-1, his ERA of 2.86 is excellent. However, advanced-stat Power Rankings suggest that Butto may have been lucky and could perform worse going forward.

On the other hand, the Cubs are projected to start left-handed pitcher Shota Imanaga, who has been performing above average. With a record of 4-0 and an impressive ERA of 0.98, Imanaga has been a key contributor to the Cubs' success this season.

In terms of offense, the Mets rank 16th in MLB, while the Cubs rank 12th. The Cubs have been particularly strong in team batting average and stolen bases, ranking 9th and 6th respectively. The Mets, on the other hand, have shown their power with an 11th place ranking in team home runs.

When it comes to the bullpens, the Mets rank 13th, while the Cubs rank 22nd according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. This suggests that the Mets may have a slight advantage in the later innings of the game.

Looking at the projected statistics for the starting pitchers, Butto is expected to pitch an average of 5.0 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, and striking out 5.0 batters. However, he is projected to struggle with allowing hits and walks. On the other hand, Imanaga is projected to pitch an average of 5.5 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, and striking out 4.8 batters. He is also expected to struggle with hits and walks.

Considering the current odds, the Mets have a low implied team total of 3.66 runs, while the Cubs have an average implied team total of 3.84 runs. This indicates that the game is expected to be close, with the Cubs being slightly favored to win according to the betting markets.

Overall, this matchup promises an exciting battle between the Mets and the Cubs. With their respective strengths and weaknesses, both teams have a chance to come out on top. The Mets will rely on their solid pitching and power hitting, while the Cubs will look to their strong offense and the performance of Shota Imanaga on the mound. Baseball fans are in for a thrilling game at Citi Field on May 1st.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Shota Imanaga's 2412-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 83rd percentile among all starters.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Dansby Swanson is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Chicago Cubs have 4 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Pete Crow-Armstrong, Miguel Amaya, Michael Busch, Christopher Morel).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes New York Mets:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Jose Butto will average a total of 2.1 singles in this game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Jeff McNeil is apt to have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Chicago Cubs has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

New York Mets hitters as a unit have been among the best in the majors since the start of last season (5th-) when it comes to their 89.4-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 29 of their last 46 games (+13.90 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games (+7.60 Units / 20% ROI)
• Shota Imanaga has only hit the Strikeouts Over in 2 of his last 5 games (-1.50 Units / -23% ROI)

Cubs vs Mets Prediction: Cubs 4.21 - Mets 4.14

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