Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Pick – 5/9/2025

On May 9, 2025, the New York Mets will host the Chicago Cubs at Citi Field in a matchup that promises to be intriguing for both teams. The Mets, currently boasting a record of 24-14, are enjoying a strong season and are positioned well in the standings. In contrast, the Cubs sit at 22-16, also having a solid year. This game marks the first of a series between these two competitive National League clubs.

Clay Holmes is set to get the start for the Mets in this game. Holmes, ranked as the 22nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has a Win/Loss record of 4-1 and an impressive ERA of 2.95 this season. His ability to generate ground balls (52% GB rate) could be advantageous against a powerful Cubs offense that has hit 55 home runs this season, ranking 3rd in MLB.

Jameson Taillon, projected to start for the Cubs, has been more of an average pitcher with a 3.86 ERA and a 2-1 record. While Taillon has also pitched 7 games this year, his low strikeout rate (19.5% K%) may hinder him against a Mets lineup that strikes out the least in MLB. The projections suggest that Taillon might struggle to capitalize on his strengths against this disciplined Mets offense, which ranks 7th overall.

With the Mets being favored at a moneyline of -155, they have an implied team total of 4.39 runs, reflecting their strong offensive capabilities. As the Cubs look to upset the odds, they will need to find a way to counteract the Mets' potent hitting and Holmes' effective pitching.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Generating 17 outs per outing this year on average, Jameson Taillon falls in the 76th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Typically, bats like Jon Berti who hit a lot of groundballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Clay Holmes.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The 3rd-best projected batting order of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the Chicago Cubs.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Clay Holmes has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his strikeouts this year, posting a 9.57 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 8.59 — a 0.98 K/9 discrepancy.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Mark Vientos has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (67% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The New York Mets bullpen ranks as the 3rd-worst in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 35 games (+6.00 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 away games (+9.15 Units / 46% ROI)
• Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+6.55 Units / 14% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.16, New York Mets 4.54

• Date: May 9, 2025
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jameson Taillon - Cubs
  • Clay Holmes - Mets

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