Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Pick – 5/10/2025

The New York Mets will host the Chicago Cubs on May 10, 2025, at Citi Field. This matchup features two teams with solid records, as the Mets stand at 25-14, while the Cubs sit at 22-17. The Mets are currently enjoying a strong season, ranking 7th in MLB offense, while the Cubs boast an impressive 3rd place ranking.

In their last game against each other, the Mets secured a victory, highlighting their current momentum. Tylor Megill is set to take the mound for the Mets, bringing a respectable 2.50 ERA and a solid Win/Loss record of 3-2 this season. However, advanced projections suggest Megill may face challenges, as he allows an average of 4.2 hits and 2.4 walks per game, indicating potential issues with control against the Cubs’ patient lineup, which ranks 3rd in MLB in drawing walks.

On the other side, Brad Keller will start for the Cubs. While his ERA of 3.78 is decent, his projections indicate he has been somewhat unlucky this season. Keller's 2.12 xERA suggests he could perform better moving forward, which adds an interesting dynamic to this game.

Given the Mets’ offensive strength and the Cubs’ struggles in the bullpen—ranked 26th overall—New York is favored with a moneyline of -150, reflecting their higher implied team total of 4.89 runs. With both teams’ recent performances and the pitching matchups, this game promises to be an engaging contest, especially as the Mets look to extend their winning streak.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Brad Keller's 2379-rpm spin rate on his fastball this season is a substantial 137-rpm spike from last year's 2242-rpm mark.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Dansby Swanson has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (69% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The 2nd-best projected lineup of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive skill belongs to the Chicago Cubs.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Tylor Megill is expected to average a total of 15.1 outs in this matchup.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Juan Soto has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 97.5-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal 93.7-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The New York Mets bullpen ranks as the 3rd-worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 16 games at home (+8.40 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 29 games (+10.20 Units / 30% ROI)
• Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+7.50 Units / 30% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.66, New York Mets 4.53

• Date: May 10, 2025
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brad Keller - Cubs
  • Tylor Megill - Mets

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