Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction, Odds & Picks – 6/28/2024

Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Details

• Date: June 28, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jameson Taillon - Cubs
  • Colin Rea - Brewers

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers will host the Chicago Cubs on June 28, 2024, at American Family Field in what promises to be an intriguing National League Central matchup. The Brewers, enjoying a stellar season with a 48-33 record, will look to extend their lead against a struggling Cubs team sitting at 38-44.

Colin Rea is slated to start for the Brewers, sporting a solid 6-2 record and a 3.29 ERA this season. Despite these impressive numbers, his 4.50 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat fortunate and might regress. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, estimates Rea will pitch 5.2 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs, 5.4 hits, and striking out 4.3 batters.

Jameson Taillon will take the mound for the Cubs. He has a 3-3 record with a strong 3.08 ERA. However, like Rea, Taillon's 4.50 xFIP indicates he has also been lucky. Projections have him pitching 4.7 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, 5.0 hits, and striking out 3.7 batters.

Offensively, the Brewers have been one of the best teams in MLB, ranking 9th overall and 4th in team batting average. They also lead the league in stolen bases, adding another layer of threat to their offense. In contrast, the Cubs rank 18th overall, with a poor 24th ranking in team batting average and 22nd in home runs.

THE BAT X projects the Brewers to have a slight edge, with a 53% win probability compared to the Cubs' 47%. The betting markets also see this as a close game, with the Brewers' moneyline at -135 and the Cubs at +115. Given the Brewers' strong season, superior offense, and better bullpen, they appear to have a slight advantage in this matchup.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Jameson Taillon is projected to average 2.91 earned runs in this matchup, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Pete Crow-Armstrong has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.6-mph dropping to 79.9-mph over the past 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs' bullpen projects as the 8th-worst out of all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Colin Rea's slider percentage has increased by 6.6% from last season to this one (10.7% to 17.3%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.273) may lead us to conclude that Christian Yelich has been very fortunate this year with his .324 actual batting average.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

William Contreras hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 97th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 8th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 36 games at home (+9.80 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 44 of their last 73 games (+12.65 Units / 15% ROI)
• Brice Turang has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+10.95 Units / 39% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.93 vs Milwaukee Brewers 5.01

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