Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction – 4/13/2025

Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

On April 13, 2025, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the Chicago Cubs at Dodger Stadium in a critical National League matchup. The Dodgers have been strong this season, currently sitting at a record of 11-5, though they are coming off a rough outing where they were shut out 16-0 by the Cubs in their last game on April 12. Conversely, the Cubs stand at 10-7 and are equally enjoying a solid start to their campaign.

Tyler Glasnow is projected to take the mound for the Dodgers. He’s had an up-and-down season so far, with a Win/Loss record of 1-0, but his ERA of 6.43 raises some concerns. However, advanced statistics suggest he might have been unlucky, as his 4.58 xFIP indicates room for improvement. Glasnow also possesses a high-groundball rate of 53%, which could play to his advantage against the Cubs' power hitters, who lead the league with 22 home runs.

Colin Rea, the Cubs' projected starter, has yet to start a game this season and has a stellar ERA of 0.00 through his three bullpen appearances, though projections suggest this level of performance is unlikely to continue. His low strikeout rate of 10.0 K% puts him at a disadvantage against the Dodgers' high-strikeout offense, which ranks 4th in the league.

The projections indicate a high-scoring game with a total set at 9.0 runs, highlighting both teams’ offensive prowess. The Dodgers rank 1st in home runs, while the Cubs rank 5th. With a moneyline of -250 favoring the Dodgers, they are expected to score around 5.46 runs, putting pressure on Rea's ability to perform effectively on the mound. This matchup underscores not only the talent of both teams but also the stakes as they look to secure a win.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Colin Rea to be limited today, projecting a maximum of 81 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Justin Turner has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (80% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Dansby Swanson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 9th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Tyler Glasnow has utilized his curveball 5.1% more often this season (23.7%) than he did last season (18.6%).

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Freddie Freeman has a good chance to have the upper hand against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Chicago Cubs only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Los Angeles Dodgers projected lineup projects as the strongest on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 12 games (+10.15 Units / 73% ROI)
• Mookie Betts has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games at home (+6.50 Units / 108% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.12, Los Angeles Dodgers 6.11

• Date: April 13, 2025
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Colin Rea - Cubs
  • Tyler Glasnow - Dodgers

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