Chicago Cubs vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, Odds, Picks – 4/28/2024

Chicago Cubs vs Boston Red Sox Betting Pick & Prediction & Preview

• Date: April 28, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hayden Wesneski - Cubs
  • Tanner Houck - Red Sox
• Run Line: Cubs 1.5 -175, Red Sox -1.5 150
• Money Line: Cubs 120, Red Sox -140
• Total (Over/Under): 9

Chicago Cubs vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Chicago Cubs - 44%
• Boston Red Sox - 56%

Projected Win %:

• Chicago Cubs - 41.8%
• Boston Red Sox - 58.2%

Chicago Cubs vs Boston Red Sox Game Preview & Prediction

On April 28, 2024, the Boston Red Sox will host the Chicago Cubs at Fenway Park in an Interleague matchup. The Red Sox currently hold a record of 15-13 this season, indicating an above-average performance, while the Cubs boast a strong record of 17-10, indicating a great season so far.

The Red Sox are projected to start right-handed pitcher Tanner Houck, who has been performing well this season. Houck has started five games, with a win/loss record of 3-2 and an impressive ERA of 1.65. However, his 2.78 xFIP suggests that he may have been fortunate and could regress in future performances. On the other hand, the Cubs are projected to start right-handed pitcher Hayden Wesneski, who has shown promise with a 2-0 record and a flawless ERA of 0.00 in two relief appearances. However, his 3.49 xFIP indicates that he may have been lucky and could face challenges going forward.

This game marks the third in the series between these two teams. In their last game, the Red Sox dominated the Cubs, winning by a score of 17-0. The Red Sox had a closing Moneyline price of +100, suggesting a close game, while the Cubs had a closing Moneyline price of -120, indicating a similar expectation.

According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Tanner Houck is ranked as the 63rd best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers, indicating that he is above average. However, Hayden Wesneski is considered a below-average pitcher by MLB standards.

The Red Sox offense ranks as the 14th best in MLB this season, with a strong team batting average ranking of 3rd. Meanwhile, the Cubs offense ranks as the 6th best in MLB, with a solid team batting average ranking of 9th.

The Red Sox's best hitter this season has been Jarren Duran, while the Cubs' best hitter has been Michael Busch. Over the last seven games, Rob Refsnyder has been the Red Sox's standout hitter, and Mike Tauchman has been the Cubs' standout hitter.

Based on the current odds, the Red Sox have a high implied team total of 4.76 runs, while the Cubs have an average implied team total of 4.24 runs. THE BAT X projects the Red Sox to score an average of 4.89 runs in this game, while the Cubs are projected to score 4.34 runs.

With these factors in mind, the Red Sox are favored to win this game, but the Cubs have shown they are capable of competing. It's expected to be an exciting matchup between two talented teams.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Among all SPs, Hayden Wesneski's fastball spin rate of 2149.6 rpm is in the 25th percentile since the start of last season.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Dansby Swanson is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Chicago Cubs have 4 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Michael Busch, Christopher Morel, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Miguel Amaya).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Tanner Houck is an extreme groundball pitcher (49.5% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Fenway Park — the #8 HR venue among all major league parks — in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Reese McGuire can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.65 Units / 46% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 49 games (+6.90 Units / 13% ROI)

Cubs vs Red Sox Prediction: Cubs 4.34 - Red Sox 4.89

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