Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals Pick & Prediction – 5/25/2024

Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 25, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jameson Taillon - Cubs
  • Miles Mikolas - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

On May 25, 2024, the St. Louis Cardinals will face off against the Chicago Cubs in a National League Central matchup at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals, with a record of 23-26, are having a below-average season, while the Cubs, with a record of 27-24, are having an above-average season.

The Cardinals are projected to start right-handed pitcher Miles Mikolas, who has a 3-5 record this year with an ERA of 5.77. Despite his struggles, Mikolas has shown potential with a 4.11 xFIP, suggesting that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. On the other side, the Cubs are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jameson Taillon, who has a 3-2 record and an impressive ERA of 2.20. However, his 4.66 xFIP indicates that he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances.

This game marks the first in a series between these two teams. In their last game, the Cardinals secured a 5-4 victory against the Orioles, while the Cubs suffered a 3-0 loss to the Braves. Both teams were involved in close games, with the Cardinals having a closing Moneyline price of +105 and an implied win probability of 47%, and the Cubs having a closing Moneyline price of -125 and an implied win probability of 53%.

The Cardinals offense ranks as the 24th best in MLB this season, but they excel in team batting average, ranking 7th in the league. Their power is also evident, as they rank 5th in team home runs. However, their stolen base ranking is low at 23rd. On the other hand, the Cubs offense ranks 20th overall, but they boast a strong team batting average, ranking 9th in the league. They also have a solid ranking in stolen bases, sitting at 6th.

According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, the Cardinals have the 5th best bullpen in MLB, while the Cubs have the 10th best. This suggests that both teams have reliable relief pitchers to support their starting pitchers.

In terms of betting odds, both teams have an equal moneyline set at -110, indicating a 50% implied win probability for each team. However, THE BAT X projects the Cardinals to have a 54% win probability, making them the slight favorites in this close matchup.

Based on the current odds, both teams have an average implied team total of 4.25 runs for this game. THE BAT X projects the Cardinals to score an average of 4.57 runs, while the Cubs are projected to score 4.47 runs.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Jameson Taillon's 91.9-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a substantial 1.1-mph drop off from last season's 93-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Dansby Swanson is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 58% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Chicago Cubs have been the 5th-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in the future

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Miles Mikolas is expected to rack up an average of 17.5 outs in this game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Lars Nootbaar stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen profiles as the 5th-best in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 41 games (+7.25 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 45 games (+8.10 Units / 16% ROI)
• Cody Bellinger has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 20 games (+7.00 Units / 35% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.38 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.5

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