Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates Pick & Prediction – 5/10/2024

Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 10, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Javier Assad - Cubs
  • Jared Jones - Pirates

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

In a National League Central matchup, the Pittsburgh Pirates will face off against the Chicago Cubs at PNC Park on May 10, 2024. The Pirates, with a record of 17-21, are having a tough season while the Cubs, with a record of 22-16, are performing exceptionally well.

The Pirates will be the home team for this game, and they are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jared Jones. Jones has started seven games this season, boasting a 2-3 record with an impressive ERA of 2.63. However, his peripheral indicator, the FIP, suggests that he may not perform as well going forward due to some luck in his favor. On average, Jones is expected to pitch 5.1 innings and allow 2.1 earned runs.

On the other side, the Cubs will send right-handed pitcher Javier Assad to the mound. Assad has started seven games this season, maintaining a perfect 3-0 record with an outstanding ERA of 1.66. Similar to Jones, his xFIP indicates that he may regress in future performances. Assad is projected to pitch 4.9 innings and allow 2.4 earned runs on average.

The Pirates, with their #27 ranked offense in MLB, have struggled to generate runs this season. Their best hitter, Bryan Reynolds, has been a bright spot for the team. The Cubs, on the other hand, possess the #13 ranked offense in MLB, led by their top hitter, Christopher Morel. In their last 7 games, the Pirates' standout performer has been Oneil Cruz, while Patrick Wisdom has shined for the Cubs.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Pirates are favored to win this game with a projected win probability of 55%. The Cubs, as underdogs, have a projected win probability of 45%. The current moneyline reflects a close game, with the Pirates at -135 and the Cubs at +115.

Both teams have low implied team totals, with the Pirates at 3.70 runs and the Cubs at 3.30 runs. THE BAT X projects the Pirates to score an average of 4.26 runs, while the Cubs are projected to score 4.03 runs.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Compared to the average pitcher, Javier Assad has been granted less leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an -9.2 fewer adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Mike Tauchman is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Christopher Morel pulls many of his flyballs (38.9% — 97th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 9th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Considering the 0.98 disparity between Jared Jones's 11.41 K/9 and his 10.43 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the majors this year as it relates to strikeouts and ought to perform worse the rest of the season.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Rowdy Tellez has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Oneil Cruz, Nick Gonzales, Jack Suwinski).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 65 of their last 113 games (+14.40 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 32 games (+5.33 Units / 13% ROI)
• Christopher Morel has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 10 games (+17.95 Units / 179% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.01 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.32

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