Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves Pick & Prediction – 5/14/2024

Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 14, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jameson Taillon - Cubs
  • Chris Sale - Braves

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated National League matchup, the Atlanta Braves are set to host the Chicago Cubs at Truist Park on May 14, 2024. The Braves, with an impressive record of 25-13 this season, have been performing exceptionally well, making them a force to be reckoned with. On the other hand, the Cubs have had a good season so far, with a record of 24-18.

The Braves will have the home-field advantage in this game, which could play a significant role in their performance. They are projected to start the elite left-handed pitcher, Chris Sale. Sale has been a dominant force on the mound, with a win/loss record of 5-1 and an excellent ERA of 2.95 this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Sale is ranked as the 8th best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers.

The Cubs, as the away team, will rely on their right-handed pitcher, Jameson Taillon. Taillon has had a solid season with a win/loss record of 3-0 and an impressive ERA of 1.13. However, his 4.33 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky this year and could potentially perform worse going forward.

In terms of offensive prowess, the Braves have been outstanding this season. They currently rank first in MLB in team batting average and team home runs, showcasing their power at the plate. The Cubs, while not as dominant, still hold respectable rankings of ninth in team batting average and twelfth in team home runs.

The Braves' best hitter this season has been Marcell Ozuna, while Cody Bellinger has been the standout for the Cubs. In their last seven games, Ozuna has been on fire, recording 9 hits, 7 RBIs, and 2 home runs, with a batting average of .474 and an impressive OPS of 1.425. Bellinger, on the other hand, has also been performing well, with 9 hits, 4 RBIs, and 2 home runs, along with a batting average of .346 and an OPS of 1.047.

When analyzing the pitching matchup, Sale's low-walk rate could pose a challenge for the Cubs, who rank third in most walks in MLB. Taillon, on the other hand, may struggle against the Braves' powerful offense, as he has a high-flyball rate and the Braves lead MLB in home runs.

With the Braves being the betting favorite, the Cubs will have an uphill battle. However, anything can happen in baseball, and the Cubs will look to defy the odds and secure a victory. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating an average expectation for scoring.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jameson Taillon to throw 85 pitches in this matchup (10th-least of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Ian Happ is projected to hit 7th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 87% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Seiya Suzuki hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.7% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Chris Sale has used his slider 5.7% more often this year (43.3%) than he did last season (37.6%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Matt Olson has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Atlanta Braves projected batting order ranks as the 4th-best of all teams today in terms of overall hitting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 60 games (+13.60 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 34 games (+6.60 Units / 18% ROI)
• Orlando Arcia has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 28 games (+12.00 Units / 43% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 3.91 vs Atlanta Braves 5.07

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