Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Pick – 5/1/2025

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to face off against the Boston Red Sox on May 1, 2025, the stakes are high in this American League East matchup. The Blue Jays are currently struggling with a record of 14-16, while the Red Sox sit above .500 at 17-15. In their last game, the Blue Jays defeated the Red Sox, which they will aim to build on as they look to turn their season around.

Jose Berrios is set to take the mound for Toronto. While he has shown some promise with a 4.24 ERA, his advanced metrics tell a different story. With a 5.04 FIP, Berrios has been somewhat fortunate this season, and his high walk rate of 10.4% could be a concern against a patient Red Sox lineup that ranks 2nd in walks. His low strikeout rate of 19.4% may also hinder him against a Red Sox offense that has the 3rd most strikeouts in MLB, but Berrios's ability to keep the ball on the ground could play to his advantage.

On the other side, Tanner Houck, who has struggled with a 7.58 ERA, is projected to pitch for Boston. With a 0-2 record and low strikeout percentage of 17.9%, his matchup against a Blue Jays offense that ranks 25th in the league might not be as daunting as it seems. The Blue Jays lack of power, ranking 29th in home runs, could work in Houck's favor, especially given his groundball tendencies.

Both bullpens are relatively strong, with the Blue Jays ranked 10th and the Red Sox at 3rd in MLB. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating expectations for a close contest. With the current moneyline for both teams at -110, the odds suggest a tightly contested game, but the projections lean slightly in favor of the Red Sox given their overall performance and offensive capability.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

The Boston Red Sox outfield defense projects as the 2nd-best among all the teams in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Extreme groundball bats like Alex Bregman usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Jose Berrios.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Boston Red Sox bullpen grades out as the 3rd-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Jose Berrios is an extreme groundball pitcher (42.9% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Rogers Centre — the #2 HR venue among all parks — in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Andres Gimenez has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (89% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 92nd percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 25 games (+4.15 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.65 Units / 27% ROI)
• Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+6.35 Units / 17% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Boston Red Sox 5.12, Toronto Blue Jays 4.44

• Date: May 1, 2025
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tanner Houck - Red Sox
  • Jose Berrios - Blue Jays

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