Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, Odds & Picks – 5/21/2024

Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 21, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cooper Criswell - Red Sox
  • Zack Littell - Rays

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated American League East matchup, the Tampa Bay Rays are set to take on the Boston Red Sox at Tropicana Field on May 21, 2024. The Rays, with a record of 25-24, are having an average season so far, while the Red Sox, with a record of 24-24, also find themselves in a similar position.

The Rays, as the home team, are projected to start Zack Littell, a right-handed pitcher. Littell has had a solid season, with a 2-2 win/loss record and an impressive 3.44 ERA. Despite being ranked as the #98 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Littell has shown great potential and is expected to perform well in this game.

On the other hand, the Red Sox will counter with Cooper Criswell, another right-handed pitcher. Criswell, while having a slightly better win/loss record of 2-1, has an ERA of 2.76. However, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Criswell is considered a below-average pitcher by MLB standards.

The Rays and the Red Sox faced off just recently, with the Red Sox winning the last game by a score of 5-0. However, the Rays had a higher closing Moneyline price and a slightly higher implied win probability, indicating that the game was expected to be close.

Looking at the overall performance of the teams, the Rays have a slightly better offense than the Red Sox this season. The Rays rank 4th in team home runs and 2nd in team stolen bases, showcasing their offensive prowess.

In terms of the pitching, the Rays have the advantage with a bullpen ranked 8th best in MLB, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Meanwhile, the Red Sox's bullpen ranks 25th, which is considered a very bad ranking.

With an average Game Total of 8.0 runs, the odds favor the Rays to win the game, with a current moneyline of -140, giving them an implied win probability of 56%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, also projects the Rays as the favorite with a win probability of 59%.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Batting from the same side that Zack Littell throws from, Tyler O'Neill will have a tough matchup in today's game.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The Boston Red Sox bullpen ranks as the 5th-worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

The Tampa Bay Rays outfield defense projects as the 3rd-best among every team on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (44.4% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 26 games (+8.10 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 48 games (+8.20 Units / 15% ROI)
• Randy Arozarena has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 10 games at home (+19.00 Units / 190% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 3.97 vs Tampa Bay Rays 4.51

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