Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 9/2/2024

• Date: September 2, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brayan Bello - Red Sox
  • Luis Severino - Mets

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets Betting Preview

On September 2, 2024, the New York Mets will host the Boston Red Sox at Citi Field in what promises to be an intriguing Interleague matchup. The Mets currently hold a record of 73-64, positioning them as a competitive force this season, while the Red Sox sit at 70-67, reflecting an average performance. The stakes are high for both teams as they vie for postseason positioning.

The Mets are projected to start Luis Severino, who has had a solid season with a 3.96 ERA and a 9-6 record over 26 starts. However, his advanced-stat Power Ranking at #132 suggests he has not been at his best. Severino's projections indicate he could pitch around 5.5 innings, allowing an average of 2.6 earned runs, which is above average. He will need to improve on allowing 4.9 hits and 1.7 walks per game to keep the Red Sox offense at bay.

Brayan Bello will take the mound for Boston. With a 4.66 ERA and a 12-6 record over 25 starts, Bello ranks #55 among MLB starters, indicating he has performed well this season. His projections suggest he will pitch 5.5 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, which is favorable compared to Severino's projections.

The Mets boast the 10th best offense in MLB, particularly excelling with their power, ranking 4th in home runs with 132. In contrast, the Red Sox also showcase a potent offense, ranking 4th in batting average and 7th in home runs. This could lead to a high-scoring affair, especially with the game total set at 8.0 runs.

As both teams look to gain momentum, the Mets' recent performance, including Jesse Winker leading the charge with a .500 batting average over his last week, could give them the edge they need to secure a victory at home. With the Mets' current moneyline set at -125, betting markets suggest a close contest, but the Mets may have the upper hand with their offensive firepower in this pivotal matchup.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Brayan Bello has gone to his off-speed and breaking balls 13.7% more often this season (56.8%) than he did last year (43.1%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Danny Jansen has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (62% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Boston Red Sox hitters jointly rank among the best in the league this year (6th-) as far as their 89.2-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Luis Severino's 95.5-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 89th percentile out of all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

J.D. Martinez has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.1-mph to 95.4-mph in the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Mark Vientos hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 97th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 23 of their last 33 games at home (+11.95 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 41 away games (+11.65 Units / 25% ROI)
• Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+8.40 Units / 30% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.48 vs New York Mets 3.92

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.