Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals Pick – 5/9/2025

The Kansas City Royals will host the Boston Red Sox on May 9, 2025, in what shapes up to be an intriguing matchup. The Royals come into this game with a solid 23-16 record, while the Red Sox sit at 20-19, making this a battle between two teams with differing trajectories this season. The Royals are enjoying a strong campaign, whereas the Red Sox are treading water with an average record.

In this game, the Royals' pitcher, Michael Lorenzen, is projected to start and has shown mixed results this year, holding a 3-3 record and a 4.23 ERA. While his advanced metrics suggest he may have been a bit lucky, he has the advantage of facing a Red Sox offense that strikes out frequently, ranking 3rd in the league in that category. Lorenzen's low strikeout rate (19.6 K%) could align well against this high-strikeout lineup, potentially giving him an edge.

On the other side, the Red Sox will counter with Hunter Dobbins, who has a 2-1 record and a solid 3.78 ERA. However, Dobbins has struggled with strikeouts and walks, projecting to pitch only 4.9 innings on average while allowing 2.5 earned runs. The Royals' offense, while ranked 25th overall, has the benefit of facing a pitcher who may not capitalize on their weaknesses.

With the Royals' implied team total sitting at 4.39 runs and the Red Sox at 4.61 runs, oddsmakers believe this game will be closely contested. The projections suggest that the Royals could outperform expectations, especially given their home-field advantage and the potential for Lorenzen to handle the Red Sox's lineup effectively. This matchup is sure to draw attention as both teams look to gain momentum in their respective seasons.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Compared to the average hurler, Hunter Dobbins has been granted a shorter leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, recording an -9.6 fewer adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Rafael Devers has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 95.4-mph average to last year's 93.1-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Boston Red Sox bullpen profiles as the 9th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Michael Lorenzen has used his off-speed and breaking pitches 7.2% more often this season (58.9%) than he did last season (51.7%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Boston's #1-ranked outfield defense on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Maikel Garcia, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Hunter Renfroe pulls many of his flyballs (39.6% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 4th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 31 games (+13.15 Units / 38% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 25 games (+6.80 Units / 17% ROI)
• Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+10.70 Units / 71% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.85, Kansas City Royals 4.56

• Date: May 9, 2025
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hunter Dobbins - Red Sox
  • Michael Lorenzen - Royals

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