Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction, Odds & Picks – 5/29/2024

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 29, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kutter Crawford - Red Sox
  • Corbin Burnes - Orioles

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated American League East matchup, the Baltimore Orioles will host the Boston Red Sox at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on May 29, 2024. The Orioles, with a stellar record of 34-19, are having a great season, while the Red Sox are maintaining an average season with a record of 28-27.

The Orioles, the home team, will be looking to extend their success in front of their home crowd. They are projected to start the right-handed pitcher Corbin Burnes, who has been performing exceptionally well this year. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Burnes is ranked as the 17th best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. With an impressive 2.60 ERA, Burnes has been a key asset to the Orioles' success. However, his 3.30 SIERA suggests that he may have been lucky this season and could see a decline in performance going forward.

On the other side, the Red Sox will send Kutter Crawford to the mound. Crawford, also a right-handed pitcher, has started 11 games this season and holds a record of 2-3 with a solid 2.89 ERA. According to our Power Rankings, Crawford is ranked as the 66th best starting pitcher in MLB. His 4.07 xFIP indicates that he may have been fortunate this season and could face challenges in maintaining his performance.

The Orioles have been bolstered by their strong offense, ranking as the 7th best in MLB this season. Their lineup has shown consistency, ranking 14th in team batting average, 17th in home runs, and 17th in stolen bases. Meanwhile, the Red Sox boast the 9th best offense in MLB, excelling in team batting average at 3rd place. However, they rank 18th in home runs and 16th in stolen bases.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Orioles are ranked 20th in MLB, while the Red Sox are ranked 28th. This suggests that both teams may face challenges in maintaining leads late in the game.

Considering the projections, the Orioles are favored to win this game with a 61% win probability according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. The Red Sox, as underdogs, have a 39% win probability. The implied team totals for this game are 4.25 runs for the Orioles and 3.25 runs for the Red Sox.

With the Orioles' strong record and impressive offensive performance, they are well-positioned to continue their winning streak. However, the Red Sox cannot be underestimated, especially with their solid pitching and potent offense. Baseball fans can expect an exciting matchup between these two division rivals.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Jarren Duran has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.5%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Corbin Burnes has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, recording 3.2 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Extreme groundball bats like Anthony Santander tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Kutter Crawford.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Baltimore Orioles projected offense grades out as the 5th-best of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 41 games (+6.75 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 49 games (+8.35 Units / 15% ROI)
• Ryan O'Hearn has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 17 games at home (+9.30 Units / 55% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 3.64 vs Baltimore Orioles 4.56

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