Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction – 4/2/2025

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to take on the Boston Red Sox on April 2, 2025, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, they come off a strong start with a 3-2 record this season. Meanwhile, Boston is struggling at 1-4, making this matchup particularly critical for the Red Sox. The last time these two teams faced each other, the Orioles emerged victorious, adding pressure on Boston to turn things around.

Projected starters Zach Eflin and Garrett Crochet offer a compelling contrast in their styles. Eflin, ranked 52nd among starting pitchers, has shown some effectiveness with a solid ERA of 3.00, though his 5.31 xFIP indicates he may have been fortunate thus far. He is expected to pitch around 5.8 innings, allowing approximately 2.5 earned runs, but concerns linger about his ability to keep hits and walks in check—projecting 5.4 hits and 1.1 walks.

On the other hand, Garrett Crochet is currently ranked 5th, making him an elite option on the mound. His ERA of 3.60 is good, but like Eflin, his xFIP of 4.28 suggests he too may face challenges moving forward. Crochet projects to pitch 5.3 innings while allowing 1.8 earned runs, and his ability to strike out 7.3 batters gives him an edge in this matchup.

Offensively, the Orioles rank 9th overall and boast the 5th best batting average in the league, while the Red Sox sit at a dismal 47th in offense. Baltimore's power should be a significant factor, especially as they face a high-flyball pitcher like Crochet, who may inadvertently provide opportunities for home runs.

With the Orioles' bullpen ranking 8th—stronger than the Red Sox’s 13th—Baltimore holds the edge in this matchup, making them a compelling choice for bettors looking for value given the close moneyline odds.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Out of every team playing today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Since the start of last season, Rafael Devers's 13% Barrel%, an advanced standard for measuring power, places him in the 89th percentile among his peers.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Boston Red Sox have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Triston Casas, Trevor Story, Connor Wong).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Given that flyball hitters hold a sizeable advantage over groundball pitchers, Zach Eflin and his 44.7% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a hard position in this outing matching up with 0 opposing GB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Adley Rutschman's footspeed has dropped off this year. His 26.59 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.68 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Baltimore Orioles bullpen ranks as the 8th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 70 of their last 129 games (+16.65 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 away games (+7.00 Units / 43% ROI)

• Date: April 2, 2025
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Garrett Crochet - Red Sox
  • Zach Eflin - Orioles

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