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Boston Red Sox Betting Preview
The Boston Red Sox finished in last place in the AL East in 2023, as they were the only team in the division to finish below .500. This season, Boston will hope to turn things around, but their season win total implies that will be a tall task for them here in 2024.
Boston does not appear to have improved in any material way in the offseason. Given how loaded the rest of the American League East appears to be this year, that could mean another long season in Boston. Here, we look at the season win total for the Sox and what bettors can expect from their roster in what could be another rough year.
2024 Over/Under Season Win Total Odds
| Sportsbook | Over/Under Wins |
|---|---|
| DraftKings Sportsbook | 79.5 |
| BetMGM | 79.5 |
Boston Red Sox Futures Betting Odds
BOS 
Standings Data
| 2023 | |
|---|---|
| Actual Record | 78-84 |
| Run Differential | -4 |
| Pythagorean W/L | 81-81 |
| BaseRuns Record | 79-83 |
| BaseRuns Run Differential | -21 |
Boston Red Sox Picks, Predictions & Betting News
Offseason Transactions
Key Additions: Lucas Giolito,
Key Departures: Chris Sale, Alex Verdugo, Justin Turner, James Paxton
Boston simply did not do enough in the offseason to fix their roster in order to compete for a division title this season. Lucas Giolito is a starting arm, but not a good enough starting arm to make their rotation dangerous. Even if he is an upgrade over the departing Chris Sale, the rotation won’t be much better, while the Sox lost several bats that they will have a hard time replacing.
Offensive Stats
| 2023 (Rank) | 2022 (Rank) | |
|---|---|---|
| Batting Average (BA) | .258 (6th) | .258 (3rd) |
| On-Base Percentage (OBP) | .324 (13th) | .321 (6th) |
| Slugging Percentage (SLG) | .424 (9th) | .409 (T-9th) |
| Weighted On-Base Avg (wOBA) | .324 (T-10th) | .319 (9th) |
| Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) | 99 (16th) | 102 (14th) |
| Batting Avg on Balls In Play (BABIP) | .310 (T-2nd) | .313 (1st) |
| Strikeout Percentage (K%) | 22.2% (12th) | 22.3% (14th) |
| Walk Percentage (BB%) | 7.9% (24th) | 7.8% (18th) |
Last year’s Red Sox team was not bad offensively by any means, ranking third in the AL East in runs scored. They hit for average and managed to avoid striking out a staggering amount. But in a division where the Sox clearly had the worst pitching staff, Boston’s offense needs to be better. Unfortunately for them, their exodus of talent in offseason could make it tougher for them to get there this year.
Pitching Stats
| 2023 (Rank) | 2022 (Rank) | |
|---|---|---|
| Earned Run Average (ERA) | 4.52 (21st) | 4.53 (24th) |
| Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) | 4.37 (20th) | 4.17 (21st) |
| Adj. Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) | 4.23 (15th) | 4.11 (T-21st) |
| Strikeout Percentage (K%) | 23.1% (T-14th) | 21.8% (20th) |
| Walk Percentage (BB%) | 8.1% (10th) | 8.5% (19th) |
| Left On Base Percentage (LOB%) | 71.6% (18th) | 69.8% (28th) |
The clear weakness of the Red Sox has been pitching over the last couple of years. They ranked in the bottom-half of the league in ERA and FIP and they ranked dead last in the AL East in runs allowed. Look for the Red Sox to struggle on the mound again in 2024, even if Lucas Giolito is a better option than a pitcher in Chris Sale who is well past his prime.
Positives & Negatives
When comparing positives and negatives for the Boston Red Sox this season, it might be easier to come up with a list of negatives. This team lost a bunch of talent from last year’s offense and did not do enough to fix their pitching to make up for that.
Perhaps the biggest positive for the Red Sox going into 2024 is the fact that there is very little pressure on this team to perform. They are expected to finish at or near the bottom of the AL East standings again this year thanks to the limitations of their roster. With low expectations comes the potential to exceed those expectations, which could work in Boston’s favor.
Boston Red Sox Win Total Prediction: Under 79.5
Our expectations for the Boston Red Sox are low this season. They should fail to reach 80 wins for the second season in a row and they should be worse than they were a season ago given the downgrades that took place on their roster. We project Boston to have around 75 wins this year as things will get worse before they get better for this team.
