Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays Pick For 9/24/2024

• Date: September 24, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brayan Bello - Red Sox
  • Bowden Francis - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays are set to host the Boston Red Sox on September 24, 2024, at Rogers Centre, marking the second game in their American League East series. The Blue Jays are currently having a below-average season with a 73-84 record, while the Red Sox are hovering around .500 at 79-78, making this an intriguing matchup between two division rivals.

Toronto's Bowden Francis will take the mound, bringing a solid ERA of 3.47, although his xFIP of 4.19 suggests he may have been lucky this season. Francis has a respectable 8-5 record, and despite his low Power Ranking of 165th among starting pitchers, he projects to allow only 2.5 earned runs over 5.5 innings—a decent outing. On the other side, Boston's Brayan Bello, ranked 66th, looks to continue his steady season. With a 14-8 record and an ERA of 4.49, Bello's 3.88 xFIP indicates he's been somewhat unlucky and might perform better than expected.

Offensively, Boston holds the edge, ranking 7th in the league, while Toronto sits at 15th. The Red Sox boast strengths in both batting average and home runs, ranked 6th and 7th, respectively. The Blue Jays have struggled for power, ranking 25th in home runs. However, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been on a tear, hitting .419 with a 1.083 OPS over the last week, providing a glimmer of hope for the home team.

In the bullpen, Toronto's struggles continue, ranked 25th, compared to Boston's average bullpen, ranked 16th. Despite the Red Sox's slight advantage, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, forecasts a tight contest, projecting the Blue Jays at a 51% win probability. With the current betting lines favoring Toronto at -135, sharp bettors might find value in siding with the Blue Jays in this close matchup.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Considering that groundball pitchers hold a substantial edge over groundball hitters, Brayan Bello and his 50% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a favorable spot in this outing matching up with 2 opposing GB hitters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Toronto's #3-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Wilyer Abreu, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Boston Red Sox have 6 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Triston Casas, Romy Gonzalez, Tyler O'Neill, Trevor Story, Wilyer Abreu, Connor Wong).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Bowden Francis has used his fastball a lot this year, though: 53.3% of the time, placing in the 100th percentile.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Over the past 14 days, Spencer Horwitz's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.7% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays' bullpen ranks as the 6th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 62 games at home (+12.05 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 away games (+6.10 Units / 47% ROI)
• Trevor Story has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 away games (+9.05 Units / 129% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.5 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.2

Check out all our free picks on every MLB game daily in our MLB betting section.