Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals Best Bet – 8/5/2024

Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals Details

• Date: August 5, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • James Paxton - Red Sox
  • Brady Singer - Royals

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to host the Boston Red Sox on August 5, 2024, both teams are looking to solidify their positions in the playoff race. The Royals currently hold a record of 63-50, showcasing a strong season, while the Red Sox sit at 59-51, performing above average. This matchup marks the first game of the series, and with both teams eager to gain momentum, the stakes are high.

In their last outing, the Royals defeated the Detroit Tigers, while the Red Sox got the better of the Texas Rangers in their last contest. On the mound, Brady Singer is projected to start for Kansas City. With an impressive ERA of 2.88 and a Power Ranking of #67 among MLB pitchers, Singer has been a reliable force. However, projections suggest he may allow 3.1 earned runs today, which could be a concern against a potent Red Sox lineup.

James Paxton takes the mound for Boston, but his season has been rocky. Despite a decent ERA of 4.52, he ranks among the lower tier of pitchers in the league. The projections indicate he might struggle against a Royals offense that ranks 12th overall, which, while average, has shown flashes of power.

The Royals' best hitter over the last week, Vinnie Pasquantino, has been on fire, recording 11 hits and 12 RBIs in just 7 games. Meanwhile, Wilyer Abreu has also been strong for the Red Sox, with a batting average of .381 over the past week.

With Kansas City favored at -145 and an implied team total of 5.12 runs, the Royals look to capitalize on their home-field advantage. As both teams look to establish dominance early in this series, fans can expect an exciting matchup that could swing either way.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

James Paxton's fastball spin rate has fallen 120 rpm this season (2088 rpm) below where it was last year (2208 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the Boston Red Sox are expected to record the 2nd-most runs (5.35 on average) of all teams today.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Brady Singer has averaged 93.2 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, ranking in the 81st percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Kansas City grades out as the #28 team in the league when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (41.3% rate this year).

• Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 57 games at home (+12.00 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 53 games (+16.25 Units / 28% ROI)
• Hunter Renfroe has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 30 games (+10.50 Units / 34% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 5.35 vs Kansas City Royals 5.67

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