Boston Red Sox at Cincinnati Reds Prediction For 6/23/2024

Boston Red Sox vs Cincinnati Reds Details

• Date: June 23, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zack Kelly - Red Sox
  • Nick Lodolo - Reds

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds host the Boston Red Sox on June 23, 2024, at Great American Ball Park in the final game of their interleague series. The Reds, with a 36-40 record, have struggled this season, ranking 27th in MLB in team batting average. However, they lead the league in stolen bases, showcasing their speed on the base paths. The Red Sox, on the other hand, boast a 41-36 record, ranking 7th in batting average and 5th in stolen bases, marking a strong season thus far.

The pitching matchup features Cincinnati’s Nick Lodolo, a left-hander ranked as the 33rd best starting pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Lodolo's effectiveness on the mound gives the Reds a significant edge. Boston counters with Zack Kelly, who will need to navigate a Reds lineup that, while struggling overall, has shown flashes of power and speed.

Elly De La Cruz has been the standout for the Reds over the past week, hitting .320 with 2 home runs and 3 stolen bases, posting an impressive 1.113 OPS in his last seven games. For the Red Sox, Ceddanne Rafaela has been on fire, batting .545 with a 1.338 OPS over his last six games, including 12 hits and 4 RBIs.

The Reds are slight betting favorites with a moneyline of -155, translating to an implied win probability of 59%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, aligns closely with these odds, giving Cincinnati a 58% chance of victory. The projections also suggest a high-scoring affair, with the Reds expected to score around 5.25 runs and the Red Sox 4.67 runs. This aligns with the game total set at 9.5 runs.

The Reds' below-average season contrasts with the Red Sox's above-average performance, making this an intriguing matchup. With Lodolo on the mound and the support of their speed on the bases, the Reds look to secure the series win at home.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

The Boston Red Sox have 4 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Enmanuel Valdez, Romy Gonzalez, Tyler O'Neill, Bobby Dalbec).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Cincinnati Reds batters as a group have been one of the worst in the league this year ( worst) as it relates to their 87.6-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 61 games (+15.90 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 26 games (+5.10 Units / 18% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.67 vs Cincinnati Reds 5.25

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