Baltimore Orioles vs Oakland Athletics Prediction & Picks 7/7/2024

Baltimore Orioles vs Oakland Athletics Details

• Date: July 7, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Grayson Rodriguez - Orioles
  • Mitch Spence - Athletics

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

As the Oakland Athletics and Baltimore Orioles prepare for their July 7, 2024 matchup at Oakland Coliseum, the teams find themselves on opposite ends of the American League standings. The Athletics, with a 34-57 record, are enduring a challenging season, while the Orioles boast a strong 56-33 record, positioning them as serious contenders.

Oakland will send Mitch Spence to the mound. Spence, a right-handed pitcher, has struggled this year, ranking 177th out of 350 starting pitchers in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Despite his 5-4 record and a 4.15 ERA, his underlying metrics suggest he's been unlucky. His 3.61 xERA and 3.51 FIP indicate potential for better performances. However, Spence's projected stats for today are less encouraging, with THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, forecasting 5.4 innings pitched, 2.9 earned runs, and just 3.9 strikeouts.

On the flip side, Baltimore’s Grayson Rodriguez will take the hill. Rodriguez, also a righty, has been impressive this season, holding a 10-3 record with a 3.45 ERA. Ranked 61st among MLB starting pitchers, Rodriguez is projected to pitch 5.7 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs while striking out 6.4 batters. His high strikeout rate will be crucial against an Athletics offense that ranks 2nd in strikeouts this season.

Offensively, the Athletics have struggled, ranking 27th in overall offense and 29th in batting average. Despite these woes, they have shown power, ranking 7th in home runs. Max Schuemann has been a bright spot lately, hitting .385 with a 1.376 OPS over the last week.

In contrast, the Orioles possess the 2nd-best offense in MLB, leading the league in home runs and ranking 6th in batting average. Ramon Urias has been on fire, hitting .571 with a 1.414 OPS over the past week.

The Athletics' bullpen, ranked 7th, could be a key factor if they manage to keep the game close. However, with the Orioles being heavy favorites (-190) and an implied win probability of 63%, Baltimore appears poised to continue their strong season. Keep an eye on how Spence's groundball tendencies match up against the Orioles' power hitters, as it could be a pivotal aspect of the game.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Grayson Rodriguez's curveball rate has spiked by 7.8% from last year to this one (8.2% to 16%) .

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

In comparison to his 92-mph average last year, Gunnar Henderson's exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 94 mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The 2nd-best projected offense on the slate in terms of overall batting skill belongs to the Baltimore Orioles.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Mitch Spence's 90.4-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 12th percentile among all starting pitchers.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Brett Harris is an extreme groundball hitter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Baltimore (#2-best of all teams on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Oakland Athletics' bullpen ranks as the 7th-best out of all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 81 games (+9.05 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 46 of their last 83 games (+16.30 Units / 17% ROI)
• Brent Rooker has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 21 games (+13.15 Units / 36% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.95 vs Oakland Athletics 3.78

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