Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins Prediction – 5/8/2025

On May 8, 2025, the Minnesota Twins will host the Baltimore Orioles at Target Field for the third game of their series. The Twins currently sit at 17-20, struggling in what can be considered a below-average season. Meanwhile, the Orioles are faring even worse at 13-22, marked by a lackluster performance overall. In their previous matchup, the Twins managed to edge out the Orioles, further complicating Baltimore's road back to competitiveness.

Projected starters Joe Ryan and Dean Kremer embody the contrasting fortunes of their respective teams. Ryan ranks as the 18th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics, showcasing an impressive ERA of 2.93, while Kremer struggles with a 5.73 ERA and is considered one of the worst pitchers in the league. This disparity puts the Orioles at a disadvantage, especially against a low-walk Twins offense that is among the least patient in baseball.

The Twins' offense ranks 20th, highlighting their struggles at the plate, but they still possess the 4th best power potential in terms of home runs. In contrast, the Orioles’ offense ranks 23rd overall, showing promise with home run production yet faltering in batting average and on-base capabilities.

As the Twins are favored with a moneyline of -155 and an implied team total of 4.39 runs, they have a higher probability of performing well today. Although both teams have their flaws, the pitching matchup heavily leans in favor of Minnesota. With the projections indicating a potential edge for Joe Ryan, expect the Twins to capitalize on their home-field advantage and secure another victory against a struggling Orioles squad.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Dean Kremer projects to average 1.8 walks today, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Cedric Mullins may have an advantage against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Minnesota Twins has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The 10.4% Barrel% of the Baltimore Orioles grades them out as the #5 team in MLB this year by this stat.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Joe Ryan's higher utilization rate of his fastball this year (64.9 compared to 54.4% last season) is not ideal consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Extreme flyball bats like Byron Buxton usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Dean Kremer.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Vazquez in the 6th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 32 games (+8.60 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.50 Units / 41% ROI)
• Adley Rutschman has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 20 games (+6.50 Units / 32% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.31, Minnesota Twins 4.6

• Date: May 8, 2025
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dean Kremer - Orioles
  • Joe Ryan - Twins

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